Thanks for sharing. The paper paints an incredibly grim picture, and depressingly, I find nothing within it to factually dispute.

If we follow the paper's assertion that 2% (or less) real returns are the best we're likely to see for the broader S&P 500 market for 10-20 years to come, what impact, if any, do you anticipate this having on Berkshire's forward return estimates?

Would you anticipate the falling tide in this case to lower all boats, including Berkshire to an extent?

Or do you think the P/E expansion and overvaluation of the S&P 500 is the largest driver of that 2% forward estimate (which Berkshire does not suffer from?)

I recall a previous low-end estimate you developed & shared that assumed a gradual decline in Berkshire's earnings potential to result in a long run 7% real return going forward (please correct if I'm off on that).

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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