*                         9/11     9/18     9/25/    10/2/23
S&P 500 Index             4457.49  4450.32  4320.06  4288.05
Trailing 12 month PE      23.97    23.87    23.14    22.91
Trail Earnings yield      4.17%    4.19%    4.32%    4.36%
Forward 12 month PE       20.68    20.58    19.91    19.70
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.83%    4.86%    5.02%    5.08%
90 day tbill yield        5.55     5.56     5.56     5.55
10 year tbond yield       4.26%    4.33%    4.44%    4.59%
Arezi Ratio               1.33     1.33     1.29     1.27
Fed Ratio                 0.88     0.89     0.88     0.90

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 56%
stocks, 44% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 26%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 72%.

Elan

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