*                         5/1      5/8      5/15     5/22/23
S&P 500 Index             4169.48  4136.25  4124.08  4191.98
Trailing 12 month PE      23.47    23.22    23.03    23.35
Trail Earnings yield      4.26%    4.31%    4.34%    4.28%
Forward 12 month PE       19.83    19.62    19.66    19.93
Fwd Earnings Yield        5.04%    5.10%    5.09%    5.02%
90 day tbill yield        5.10     5.26     5.25     5.29
10 year tbond yield       3.44%    3.44%    3.46%    3.70%
Arezi Ratio               1.20     1.22     1.21     1.23
Fed Ratio                 0.68     0.68     0.68     0.74

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 58%
stocks, 42% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 28%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 73%.

Elan

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