*                         4/17     4/24     5/1      5/8/23
S&P 500 Index             4137.64  4133.52  4169.48  4136.25
Trailing 12 month PE      23.93    23.83    23.47    23.22
Trail Earnings yield      4.18%    4.20%    4.26%    4.31%
Forward 12 month PE       19.86    19.80    19.83    19.62
Fwd Earnings Yield        5.03%    5.05%    5.04%    5.10%
90 day tbill yield        5.14     5.14     5.10     5.26
10 year tbond yield       3.52%    3.57%    3.44%    3.44%
Arezi Ratio               1.23     1.22     1.20     1.22
Fed Ratio                 0.70     0.71     0.68     0.68

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 59%
stocks, 41% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 29%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 73%.

Elan

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