No. of Recommendations: 22
Just some random observations.
A year ago today, BRK.B hit it's peak close ($359.97). A year ago tomorrow, it hit its all-time peak ($362.10). In today's dollars, that's close to $382 and $384, respectively. Without the inflation adjustment, we'd need a 20% return to hit the previous peak. With it, we'd need about 27%.
Including the dotcom bust, I count five times BRK has not hit a new nominal peak within the year: 06/1998 - 11/2003 (~5.4 years, including the first year); 04/2004 - 8/2006 (~2.4 months); 12/2007 - 2/2013 (~5.2 months); 12/2014 - 11/2016 (~1.9 years); and 03/2022 - TBD.
If my numbers are right, the Price to Book ratios at "Peak" and "Return to Peak" for each of these periods were as follows: 2.9/1.73; 1.87/1.49; 1.93/1.33; 1.51/1.43; 1.57/TBD. I have the Price to Book for the valleys as 1.07, 1.55, 0.98, 1.29, and TBD.
Apologies for any errors, and there are probably a few, but it should be roughly right.
I don't have any particular insight, and don't place any substantial reliance on these figures, but I glanced at the numbers, and thought I'd share.
I was a bit surprised at just how long BRK has had the status of "hasn't hit a new peak", even if one ignores all of the time periods in which a new peak was hit within a year.
Given what I was looking at, and especially the built in time periods involved (minimum 1 year from past Peak), it was less surprising that a new peak was inevitably hit with a P/Book ratio substantially lower than the first peak. A testament to BRK's ability to steadily grow its Book.
I suppose another unsurprising insight is to stay away from options if this thing hits 2.9 P/Book again.
To the extent I'm wagering on it, and I sort of am, I think it is more likely than not that we hit a new nominal peak in 2024.
