No. of Recommendations: 15
How Trump Miscalculated in Iran
He followed his Venezuela model, not accounting for the ideological character of the regime in Tehran. Donald Trump threatened to end Iranian civilization, then sued for peace. If the two-week cease-fire is extended, which seems likely, the extra time won’t resolve the conflict’s underlying causes. …
The hardened men who rule Iran see this war in existential terms. Their planning appears more judicious than the U.S. initially assumed. They husband munitions for less intense but persistent barrages. The Islamic Republic’s leaders have thus prolonged the war and rattled the global economy. Western anxiety over this conflict and the start of negotiations between Tehran and Washington make it less likely that America—and by extension Israel—might come to the aid of another Iranian insurrection.
Survival has always been the clerical regime’s primary objective. Its rulers truly believe that the country’s vast internal dissent is in part fueled by foreign conspiracies. If they inflict enough pain on the U.S. and encourage it to disengage from the Middle East, that makes it less likely that the millions of Iranians who loathe the regime will rally successfully against it.
Compromising on anything fundamental through diplomacy with Washington threatens the regime at home. Too much of the Islamic Republic’s aura has already been compromised. Too many iconic leaders have been killed, too much of Iran’s defense degraded. Since the pro-democracy Green Movement in 2009, the regime has understood that more nationwide protests are always on the horizon. This perpetual instability likely led many Israelis, perhaps first and foremost Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to believe that the regime was more brittle than it actually was. Hit it hard enough in the right spots—eliminate the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and many of his minions—and the nezam, the system, might unravel. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-trump-miscalculate...When even the hard right Wall Street Journal editorial board thinks you’ve cuffed up, that’s saying something.
Now that we’ve raised oil prices worldwide, given Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz, aided Russia and China while harming Western Allies, weakened NATO, harmed the US’ world standing, killed thousands of Iranians, succeeded in regime change with an ever worse regime, and showed ourselves to be helpless to bring the situation back to where it was in the first place, I have to ask: Where Go From Here?
