No. of Recommendations: 2
What are those consequences in your crystal ball?
Oh, I mentioned them in the other post. The most certain consequence is that you throw a massive political lifeline to the Iranian government. We have only to look at Israel to see how powerful a "rally 'round the flag" moment is for an unpopular or unsteady regime. The US committing an act of war and violating international law to attack an Iranian cargo vessel, when neither that vessel nor any Iranian forces have done anything to US forces? Best thing that could happen in Tehran, especially after the embarrassment they've recently suffered.
The next most likely outcome is that Iran starts reciprocating in the Gulf, harassing commercial shipping from the Saudis to Yemen especially - Iran's got a decent-sized Navy, and can certainly throw their weight around that way. That increases the risk of more conflicts and more escalation. As noted above, they'd certainly reach out to their Chinese allies as well - they already conduct joint operations with the Chinese naval forces in the Persian and Gulf of Aden, and that would be strengthened intensely if Iran feels threatened by U.S. forces in the area.
There's the diplomatic consequences as well. US violations of international law won't just play poorly in Tehran; lots of nations, even some of our allies, don't want it to become an accepted norm of behavior that large military powers can sink cargo vessels without there being a precipitating cause.
And for what? Sinking a single ship isn't much of a tactical benefit, after all. It's not going to get Iran to stop supporting the Houthis, and is not going to get the Houthis to stop firing on ships in the Red Sea.
