IMO the greatest risks from the Liberation Day tariffs was not related to trade with China or with the EU or big business or if American kids will get two expensive or 30 cheap dolls to play with. The biggest risks was slapping prohibitive tariffs on dozens of poor, populous developing countries, basically destroying their economies.

It was dumb because these places don't have anything to offer on top of what they are already giving to the developed world: cheap labor. So there is not much else to extract. Their trade surplus is our gain, not our loss. We are exploiting their precarious conditions.

But it was even dumber because destroying their economies could create political instability in those places, potentially causing mass migrations, exporting instability to other places as well. Finally, we might see wars and all those people will hate the U.S. and try to do less business with such an unreliable partner. And some other foreign, less (?) democratic power could move in and "save" those countries, expanding its sphere of influence.