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Some perspective on ACA Subsidies. These are for 2026, without the enhanced subsidies.

These are estimates for my family of 5. Try it for yourself.

https://www.kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator...


2026 MAGI $150k $111k $75k $55k
Subsidy: $1,409 $1,920 $2,334 $2,471
Your Cost: $1,063 $552 $138 $0
% of MAGI: 8.50% 6.02% 2.20% 0.01%


Over $150,600 there is no subsidy.

If I could keep my income to $55k I would get free health insurance for my family, and basically pay no income tax into the bargain.
The poster Intercst has shown for years how this can be managed.

Related, a good piece by Krugman on why people we access to affordable health insurance:
https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/the-re...

Adrian C,

Can you indicate what level of plan these cost estimates are for?

As I recollect the "second most expensive Silver plan" available in your area(at least at one point in the past, not sure if it's still the same nowadays) is used as the baseline for how the subsidies are calculate.

But if I'm reading what you posted correctly, if your 2026 MAGI is $150,000, then your monthly premium cost (with the unenhanced subsidies) nets out to $1,063 for a family of 5.

That seems like a VERY good deal. So that's the status quo that the Dems are not satisfied with and shut the government down for 6 weeks for nothing.

I'm not seeing that the existing ACA (unenhanced) subsidies are at all "unfair."

What are the Democrats really up to with this manufactured crisis???

Can you indicate what level of plan these cost estimates are for?

As I recollect the "second most expensive Silver plan" available in your area(at least at one point in the past, not sure if it's still the same nowadays) is used as the baseline for how the subsidies are calculate.

Second least expensive Silver plan (not the cheapest, the next one up). For us that's from an insurance company we don't trust, who covers none of our providers, and we go with a more expensive yet Bronze-level plan that has all our doctors.

But if I'm reading what you posted correctly, if your 2026 MAGI is $150,000, then your monthly premium cost (with the unenhanced subsidies) nets out to $1,063 for a family of 5.

That seems like a VERY good deal. So that's the status quo that the Dems are not satisfied with and shut the government down for 6 weeks for nothing.

That's right. The subsidy cliff is rough, though. If our MAGI is $151,000 we go from $1063/mo to $2472/mo. So that's why you hear some of the "premiums doubling" talk.

I'm not seeing that the existing ACA (unenhanced) subsidies are at all "unfair."

I agree, for the most part. Just that darn subsidy cliff. But, you know, woe-is-me I make too much money... lol

This isn't what I get when I enter my income into the Market Place. If I enter $85,000 it said that I won't receive any subsidy. If I drop it to under $80k I get a subsidy.
I wonder if that site is updated yet.

Adrian, the site shows this:
-----------------
This calculator is currently being updated with new data for 2026. Please visit our ACA Enhanced Premium Tax Credit Calculator for the most up-to-date information and to calculate how much more people would pay in premiums if the ACA's Enhanced Premium Tax Credits expire.

https://www.kff.org/interactive/calculator-aca-enh...
-----------------
Did that show up when you did your entry?

I don't use ACA now for my wife, but I have a friend who does and I'm interested if he's done this because he was talking about his wife's premiums going up $600. And if you go over to reddit you'll see a bunch of people talking about how much their premiums will go up. So my interest is in posting this over on reddit and showing this to my friend.

Thanks Lambo. Now this matches what I found for 2026. My wife and I will be paying 22.79% of our income for a bronze plan if we go over $84kish.

When talking about "premiums" going up, to really put the numbers in context for a particular situation, we need at least the following:

1. The full non-subsidized cost of the same health insurance plan last year vs. this year.
2. Family Size last year/this year.
3. MAGI last year/this year (e.g. if you got a pay increase that put you over the 400% subsidy cliff, which is coming back in 2026, then yeah what you pay is likely increasing by a lot.)
4. Premium credits received last vs. this year.
5. What percentage of the premium credit you received last year were enhanced Biden Covid era credits, and what percentage or amount were the normal ACA credits,without the Biden era enhancements.
6. Age of oldest household member last year vs. this year.
7. Any changes in medical condition of you or family member which may impact the premium level.
8. Genders.
9. Smoker vs. non-smoker

There may be other factors but just giving a number with no context isn't very helpful.

I do know that my wife's employer-provided health insurance is going up 26% which is similar to the industry wide increases but she only pays 20% of the entire premium as part of her job benefits.

If I enter $85,000 it said that I won't receive any subsidy. If I drop it to under $80k I get a subsidy.
I wonder if that site is updated yet.

Sure. I'm guessing you're a family of 2:

https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/federal-povert...

FPL: $21,150
400% FPL: $84,600

Go over this in 2026 - without the enhanced subsidies - and you get no subsidy. That's the subsidy cliff.

When talking about "premiums" going up, to really put the numbers in context for a particular situation, we need at least the following:

Have at it Marco, take what you can get here and figure out the rest. It seems like you've made a reason to disregard what you don't like. Well, we are going to be treated to "anecdotal" stories of people and families falling off of ACA, and they go broke when a family member or themselves.

Seems to me that the person who thinks the old ACA is the way to go should produce this to show us the error of our ways rather than just windily pontificate.

Yes I understand this. Why I responded was that the link you provided didn't match up with what I get when I'm on the Market Place.
Lambo's link matches much better.

Your link gives me $20,419/yr for a Silver plan. The other link gives me $26,364/yr(31.02% of household income) for a Silver plan.

So one of the links isn't giving the correct numbers.

Either way I can't afford to pay 31% or even 23% of my income for heath insurance. I'll just have to make sure that we don't go over the cliff!!

Rational people want as much objective factual information as possible to understand what the situation is.

ProGlibs already know all the answers, facts don't matter to them.

That's the subsidy cliff.

I will never understand the point of these sharp cutoff ranges for benefits, taxes, etc. Why not just make it a smooth formula based on the AGI? That would also get rid of all the stupid tables that need to be endlessly consulted.

That's a pretty reasonable idea--no sudden subsidy cliff.

It's too bad that the Dems wasted 6 weeks on the Schumer Shutdown, isn't it?

This calculator is currently being updated with new data for 2026. Please visit our ACA Enhanced Premium Tax Credit Calculator for the most up-to-date information and to calculate how much more people would pay in premiums if the ACA's Enhanced Premium Tax Credits expire.

https://www.kff.org/interactive/calculator-aca-enh...
-----------------
Did that show up when you did your entry?

Thanks Lambo, you are correct. I didn't see that and the numbers I posted upthread were for *2025*! Could have sworn it told me no sub for $151k. WTF? Apologies.

Here's updated numbers with comparisons for with and without enhanced subsidies, using the correct link this time.

2025 With Enhanced Subsidies
MAGI..... $151,000 $150,000 $111,000 $75,000 $55,000 
Subsidy.. $1,402   $1,409   $1,920   $2,334  $2,471
Your Cost $1,070   $1,063   $552     $138    $0

2026 With Enhanced Subsidies
MAGI..... $151,000 $150,000 $111,000 $75,000 $55,000 
Subsidy.. $1,836   $1,848   $2,370   $2,782  $2,906 
Your Cost $1,070   $1,058   $536     $123    $0 

2026 Without Enhanced Subsidies
MAGI..... $151,000 $150,000 $111,000 $75,000 $55,000 
Subsidy.. $0       $1,661   $1,999   $2,496  $2,725 
Your Cost $2,906   $1,245   $907     $410    $181 

So, if my 2026 MAGI is $150k my monthly premium cost (with the unenhanced subsidies) will be $1,245 for a family of 5. That's not bad. Must not go over that, though.

Someone making $75k sees theirs go from $138/mo to $410/mo. That's a problem.

BTW, MAGI isn't what you earn, of course. I can make about $260k and get a MAGI of $150k.

Rational people want as much objective factual information as possible to understand what the situation is.

ProGlibs already know all the answers, facts don't matter to them.

No. ACA doesn't apply to me as I'm on FEPblue Basic now, and added my wife. I did this because I saw my wife's ACA would be in trouble under Trump. Hospitals and supporting Doctors are maybe 3 miles away. I can walk there easily. I'm interested to help my friends and others. Ya know those things called empathy and sympathy? They actually exist, and are not for suckers.

"Rational people want as much objective factual information as possible to understand what the situation is.

ProGlibs already know all the answers, facts don't matter to them." - Marco

That you for continuing the long standing tradition of Trump nutters regularly engaging in unintentional irony on these boards. As a big fan of the unintentional irony as a form of humor, I appreciate your contribution to entertain us.

Ya know those things called empathy and sympathy? They actually exist, and are not for suckers.

A lack of empathy is strongly associated with certain personality disorders...
especially antisocial personality disorder, narcissistic personality disorder, and psychopathy.

So, the 2025 premium without any subsidies would be $2,472 for someone earning $150k. The 2026 premium without any subsidies would be $2,906. Assuming it's exactly the same plan, same coverages, etc. (which it might not be, if they changed maximum oop and/or deductibles/copay levels) about a 17.5% premium increase.

Your cost with enhanced subsidies in 2025 but without enhanced subsidies in 2026 at 150k goes up from $1063 to $1245 or a little over 17% which seems to track the premium increase. It's not exactly comparable since we don't know what the 2025 cost would have been absent enhance subsidies.

However, a clue to how irrational ACA is, is that if the enhanced subsidies were retained for 2026, the net cost to you would actually go down from 1063 to 1058. It's not a lot, but what's the rationale for having the taxpayers absorb the entire premium increase, rather than a proportional share of it?

Not asking you to actually explain it.

Lambo,

So in other words, as a federal employee or perhaps retiree, under the FEP system, you optionally excluded your spouse from your FEP coverage in prior years, and she remained on the ACA plan, so you could garner a financial advantage for yourself and spouse.

Perhaps this was due to the availability of the enhanced ACA premium subsidies, perhaps for some other reason.

But now, it's not financially advantageous for you/your wife for her to stay on ACA, and you two have decided it's better for you for your wife to be on your FEP plan.

You don't provide numbers about the actual cost differential; and good for you and your wife for being able to "game the system";

but you and your wife don't sound impoverished or in need or unable to afford health care without the enhanced ACA subsidies, and you don't indicate any reason whatsoever that your wife should not be on your FEP plan in the first place.

Ya. The M om MAGI = Modified

AI
How to Calculate MAGI
MAGI is not a line item on your tax return and must be calculated manually, starting with your AGI from Form 1040, line 11. The specific items you add back to your AGI depend on the tax benefit for which you are applying.
Common items to add back to AGI to determine your MAGI include:

Non-taxable Social Security benefits
Tax-exempt interest (e.g., from municipal bonds)
Excluded foreign earned income and housing deductions
Deductions for student loan interest
IRA contributions (in some cases)

For many people, AGI and MAGI are identical or very close. END

Well, I'm not resentful if someone else gets a benefit. For my FEPblue, the Fed keeps paying the portion they would pay as if I'm an active employee. I EARNED that. 😊 It was part of my package. 😛 It doesn't bother me at all if someone else, who didn't have that in their package, gets some help. No sourpuss here. Help them. I would like someone to make some explanatory graphs, but Loren Cobb isn't around. Did he pass?
Anyone know?

Lambo,

You didn't earn enhanced Biden-era ACA premium subsidies, which was what the Dems shutdown the government for for six weeks.

I get it.


Lots and lots of people who are benefitting from the enhanced ACA subsidies are folks like yourself--fed or state/local government employees or their family members, who are in no financial need whatsoever, and who stand to reap real financial benefits. And who also vote and contribute heavily to Democrats.

So, it's just another form of Democrat money laundering.

Got it.

Republicans need to hold the line on this issue. Go ahead shut down the government again on January 30, 2026. Just try it.

If the numbers were laid out clearly it would be obvious why the Dems thought this was worth shutting the government down for six weeks.

So in other words, as a federal employee or perhaps retiree, under the FEP system, you optionally excluded your spouse from your FEP coverage in prior years, and she remained on the ACA plan, so you could garner a financial advantage for yourself and spouse.

No. For 10 years I was in the Philippines and they have dirt cheap insurance for Filipinos, which I put us both on. I went on because For$300 a year they accept that card in hospitals and you don't have to pay cash up front, plus my coverage in FEPblue was initially honored only in one hospital in Cebu (one island over). As I stated before, I kept FEPblue because if I went off of it, I was not allowed back onto it. I didn't know when I was coming back - but I paid US prices for a very healthy 10 years. Some people wouldn't. I did.

I didn't optionally exclude her - she had her own plan I put her on in the PI. ACA isn't available in the PI. There are odd things - such as if you have a VA disability and are in Manila, you're covered by it there, and they will mail you Rxs.

When I got here, she didn't have a green card, and I paid for travel insurance until she got her green card. Following so far?

Then she got he green card and needed insurance, and I asked her to check the Filipina Network, which told her to go to Walmart and talk to the guy there. I went with her. Half of the conversation was in Tagalog, so I didn't follow it. He asked me what my income was, and I guessed the net going into my bank accounts, without realizing why the question was being asked or that we were talking ACA. I've talked about my surprises with ACA before.

I saw open season coming up, so I boned up on Medicare, FEPblue, and all the other plans, all the letters, ruling out what didn't apply and reading what did apply multiple times, highlighting, underlining and I prepared a four page analysis and refined it. I spent a lot of time on it, and was still uncertain, I could have missed something easily.

It seemed that ACA was a good deal, because she was getting charged a small amount a month for it. Cheap. And I needed time because all the plans were soo much. It was all new to me. Then she needed a specialist and the the specialists available on her plan within an hours driving time no longer existed. I talked to the desk ladies in Doctors offices and no one took her plan. Luckily, we were still in open season, so I made the switches I had thought through previously, getting her on my plan(though still somewhat uncertain and thinking I could be making a mistake), cost me more, but her ACA plan was bad. It would've been prohibitive to bring her on my standard plan. And I've talked to people who are very happy with that plan.

Then, *after* all that, ACA levels up at tax time, and I lost a big chunk of my refund to ACA. Then on September I got a refund from the ACA plan and I think that might be because they didn't spend 85% of the premiums on medical costs. It didn't say -just my guess.

I truly resent your tone, implications, and think you have proven yourself to be an utter lowlife asshat by your approach of accusing my wife and I of gaming a system normal people have difficulty understanding.

People go in and talk to someone at a card table in a store to get health insurance - I know they don't understand if they are getting good coverage. My brother swears by a Medicare Advantage Plan, but he lives in a trailer park and gets advice on what plans are real methinks.

good for you and your wife for being able to "game the system";

FUCK YOU SCUMBAG! Did you ever serve? Since any accusation is a confession, I'd have to assume this is projection. Ploink. In you go.

For many people, AGI and MAGI are identical or very close.

It is for me.

Deductions from top line to make the AGI:
SE tax adjustment
Solo 401k
Deductible IRA (Spouse, usually)
HSA Account (new in 2026 for all Bronze plans)
Health Insurance (circular reference)

I dunno for me, I'd have to look. :) But ACA is academic. :)

Hi Lapsody,

That's a really really logical argument in favor of shutting down the government and extending enhanced Covid era Biden subsidies for the ACA.

Really persuaive.

Good job.

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