No. of Recommendations: 11
I think ready cash still has a level of optionality that you don't get with anything else.
Just thinking about this, and the "swing ya bum" theory of investing. What if they swung?
What if Berkshire lost its patience and blew the excess cash buying one or more businesses that are pretty good for the long haul, but not at all cheap because of where we are in the market cycle. Maybe overpaying for a private company, more likely public stock. Given the size required, probably multiple listed stocks. In that scenario, what's a reasonable lower estimate on the earnings yield that would be achieved?
As always, the earnings yield that matters is the future earnings per continuing share, for example 5-10 years out, not the earnings today. Those at KHC might be lower in real terms, those at GOOG probably not.
The reason I ask: if you value the cash based on a reasonable multiple of that earnings yield, rather than its face value, would that change your valuation of a share of Berkshire? Would it be higher? In essence, this would be a way of answering the question of whether a given pile of cash is worth more in the hands of the folks in Omaha than its face value would suggest. I think the value of cash can be different in different hands...I think the mere fact that it's unlikely they'd pick SpaceX means they're ahead of some players.
Jim