No. of Recommendations: 25
Perhaps one of the pithiest views in that link:
"In the aggregate, LLM ownership is being priced at $1.5 trillion or more, and the collective revenues, even generously defined, are less than $100 billion. It is entirely plausible that a big market exists for LLMs, and that one or even two of the players in this space will be winners, but in the aggregate, the market is overreaching."
I have long been a fan of the method he espouses here, which is following the reasoning backwards from current market cap: what good things would have to happen to the underlying business, how soon and for how long, for an investment at today's price to offer a reasonable return? Assuming that there will be a day in the future, perhaps ten years out, that the days of exuberant market multiples will end and they fall to merely high. The just decide if those things are plausible. If not, the stock is overpriced.
Jim
