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Today’s PR
https://www.esperion.com/news-releases/news-releas...

Investor preso and a couple Nov science conf events listed here:
https://www.esperion.com/investor-relations/events

I don’t have the transcript yet, but only thing new of note was around Canada market and expecting a partnership soon. This is potentially important as there may be upfront funds tied to that partnership, and those funds could be used to offset the Nov 2025 Notes that will come due. Some online state once Notes get within a year of their due date, they become liabilities or something like that, on balance sheet…so in your interest to address this month.

The other not really new news but good to hear news was that Japan partner Otsuka is on track to file by EOY, which triggers a milestone payment (I think $25m but not positive).

Still on track is that European partner DSE takes over pill manufacturing in 2025 and apparently on schedule and that reduces costs, improving profitability moving forward.

Right now their pace, with my proj Q4 is about a $120m US sales number for 2024. Again - despite their small cap, I have to remind myself that this is not a no-revenue SPAC or anything. They do over $100m/year in revenue. Their product is real and insurance companies formulary and UM updates show that the product is real, and the sales growth and Rx growth is real.

50% is pretty awesome normally, but the y/y compare feels a bit off bc they were flat for a couple Q’s in 2023 so the compare this Q and in Q4 is a bit easy y/y.

So the time to ramp is now. Definitely not time to slow the Qtrly growth.

Any partnership news can be notable, so let’s see if it happens in next few weeks or not.

Dreamer

While their $31m US Sales was "only" 10% Q/Q, their Y/Y growth upticked to 53%.

Using legacy Saul-like criteria, Esperion is officially a high-growth stock, imo.
This Q4 should be a layup to finish slightly higher and closer or above 60% Y/Y.

Then they need growth to kick up a bit to keep the Y/Y trend going into 2025 as their compares start to lap the flat 2023 Q's and in more stair-step growth of 2024 Q's.

script growth is the true measure of the business of drugs, me thinks.
sales is tied to the 3 large PBMs that buy the pills for all the distribution.

I think scripts tell a better growth story since Q1 than sales. it also doesn’t have such a lumpy y/y compare.

I can't post graphics here, I don't think, but the previous 3 Q's had consistent y/y SCRIPT growth of 42-43%.
For Q3, this jumped to 46% Y/Y script growth. This is a key sign, as revenue will follow script growth over time.

Would like to see scripts hit closer to 50% Y/Y for Q4, and supposedly, per their press release comments, Q4 is off to a strong start. Remains to be seen if/how holidays impact scripts, so they need to build up a nice early lead.

The market at first reacted poorly to ER and then it seemed the news about an imminent partnership for Canada has led to the stock price finally breaching $2.20 again. This may just be a technical move...I am not a TA trader, so no idea, but up to $2.40 at moment of writing this. The low recently was $1.60-ish, so obviously a good move since then, but this stock is still way undervalued, imo, due to the acquisition liklihood.

Rumors abound online about a new patent application that happens to be tied to a liver drug that existing partner Otsuka owns...where there is smoke there is fire? Also, their CMO was allowed to leave and went to J&J and apparently they are a top Canada pharma. Again - smoke/fire? Will see.

Couple presentations this month on the calendar of events, too.

Good investing all!
Dreamer

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