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CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August; shelter and food up
09/11/2025

In August, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in August (SA); up 3.1 percent over the year (NSA).
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I guess the stock market is betting that the Fed is more concerned about the drop in employment than the rise in inflation and will cut rates accordingly at their meeting this month. The EU central bank held the line.

I'm guessing the market will go down on the day their announcement is made - regardless of a cut or not (but further if they don't cut). (Buy on the rumor, sell on the news).

Jeff

am convinced of 2 things :
- gop will not be praising the sudden affordability of all things, except few propagandists in the unlikely case of deep recession
- MAGA never will understand inflation nor the cantillion effect

valueplays had a very tight summary :
"At current rates, a 0.5% or even 1% cut will not have any economic impact to speak of. Borrowing rates are already at levels the US economy has flourished in the past and lower rates while better are not the economic push essential to propel growth. It will have a major market psychology impact.
However, many will believe that after having the PMI essentially below 50 the last 3yrs with fear of recession, the psychological impact will prove considerably positive."

i still think the chances of YCC is very real as trump's remaining option if sentiment and concurrent indicators go bad.

I think TPTB are moving against unemployment rising, and with it, a wave of deflation in the not so distant future.

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