No. of Recommendations: 7
That's a multi-year, multi-billion investment - and merely replacing Maduro with a close ally, with no other political or structural changes in the country, is unlikely to induce companies to rush in.
Consider: China has put more than $100B into Venezuela over the past 15-20 years, and it will take much more than that to bring their economy back from the morgue - and in any event you can ‘t snap your fingers and have it happen. It takes time to rebuild an economy from the ground up (ask FDR, for instance. Or Grant, Hayes, Arthur, and Garfield following The Long Depression of 1873).
Now you’re on the BoD of, say, Exxon. Are you going to plow $20 billion into an unstable area without some kind of assurance that you can get your money back out? Haven’t we seen this movie in Venezuela before?
And by the way, who has the hundreds of billions in cash handy, ready to plunk down on this wild bet? Apple does, seems unlikely. Berkshire does, and while they like “energy” they also don’t like risk, so again, seems unlikely. Put all the cash from all the oil companies together, still seems unlikely without a US military presence there to keep calm and carrying on. (By frame of reference, we kept a military presence in Panama for 80 years after we build the canal.)
Oh, hey. Big runs on grocery stores in Venezuela today. How long before Peace breaks out and the campfires run hot with Kim-ba-ya gatherings? Wake me when that happens.
