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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: AdrianC ⎊🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 19824 
Subject: 200 Days of SPY vs BRK
Date: 01/29/26 8:59 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Just for fun...and to illustrate the meaninglessness of short-term charting.

The Stockcharts link I use defaults to 200 trading days (a year is 252).

The 200-day SPY vs BRK/B is a bit shocking right now:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,BR...

40% difference in return!

Change the chart to 6,800 days to feel better:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,BR...



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Author: hclasvegas   😊 😞
Number: of 19824 
Subject: Re: 200 Days of SPY vs BRK
Date: 01/29/26 10:12 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 1
" Change the chart to 6,800 days to feel better:"

Think back long and hard, remember when Buffett had other timelines and hurdles?

Thank you.
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Author: mungofitch ✹🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 19824 
Subject: Re: 200 Days of SPY vs BRK
Date: 01/29/26 10:56 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
40% difference in return!

Valuation got atypically high for a while there. That's why I wrote enough calls to be notionally net short. A calculated gamble, but it worked nicely.

When things are richly valued they can and do often keep going up. But starting from that situation, down (or at best flat) is rather more likely than up over any reasonable time frame.

Jim
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Author: Blackswanny   😊 😞
Number: of 19824 
Subject: Re: 200 Days of SPY vs BRK
Date: 01/30/26 5:12 AM
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Quock fag packet. I'll be interested in BRKB below c$420 a share based on current BV.
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Author: mungofitch ✹🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 19824 
Subject: Re: 200 Days of SPY vs BRK
Date: 01/30/26 7:53 AM
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Quock fag packet. I'll be interested in BRKB below c$420 a share based on current BV.

That doesn't sound crazy.

For whatever it's worth, today's price on this line of "inflation adjusted smoothed real value per share" would be $427.85.
http://stonewellfunds.com/SmoothedRealValuePerShar...
It seems to give a pretty conservative target, but it's scaled to have been "right" on average for price estimation in the last 20 years. The future may differ, or my valuation models may be wonky.

That model implies your $420 target would be about 1.8% cheaper than the 20 year average level. A further implication is that the target should rise maybe inflation+ $1.35/month this year, since that's what observable value seems to be doing on trend lately.

Jim
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Author: AdrianC ⎊🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 19824 
Subject: Re: 200 Days of SPY vs BRK
Date: 01/30/26 2:28 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Lately my list of tickers has typically been a sea of green, except for one.
Today it's the other way around. Flight to safety, I expect (from the talking heads).
Still, I'd rather we have a brief dive down to $420.

FWIW (not much), my 3Q 5-groves and look-through were both about $445.
Berkshire is more often than not cheaper than this 5-groves estimate.

	5-groves	Year End Price
2012	 $106.25 	 $89.37 
2013	 $128.79 	 $111.00 
2014	 $143.06 	 $150.00 
2015	 $148.61 	 $132.00 
2016	 $167.27 	 $163.83 
2017	 $195.88 	 $202.00 
2018	 $225.52 	 $195.20 
2019	 $259.25 	 $226.50 
2020	 $279.29 	 $231.87 
2021	 $347.25 	 $299.00 
2022	 $365.78 	 $308.90 
2023	 $375.70 	 $356.66 
2024	 $416.58 	 $453.28 
2025	 $446.00 	 $502.65
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