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- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 6
This is my first post in this area- I really haven't read much other than Berkshire stuff.
I don't really know the majority of the political affiliation on these boards either.
Trump is waking up to what the rest of humanity has known re Putin, it is taking him a very long time and in that time Ukraine has likely lost ground.
To the extent that folks on these boards have been pro Trump, I'd love to learn the other side. Frankly, IMO, there is no other side. Putin wants to resurrect the USSR, and there is no negotiation possible with him, the only way to win is to push Russian forces completely out of Ukraine, and that is likely going to mean a lot more equipment and maybe even NATO boots on the ground.
No. of Recommendations: 2
To the extent that folks on these boards have been pro Trump,
There are a few here who are pro-Trump, but most of them are pro-Ukraine. Not sure how they reconcile the ambiguity. Perhaps they can explain.
No. of Recommendations: 4
To the extent that folks on these boards have been pro Trump, I'd love to learn the other side. Frankly, IMO, there is no other side. Putin wants to resurrect the USSR, and there is no negotiation possible with him, the only way to win is to push Russian forces completely out of Ukraine, and that is likely going to mean a lot more equipment and maybe even NATO boots on the ground.
The "Trump is a Russian asset" or "Trump is Putin's puppet" stuff is not and has never been true. Arguments that use these as a premise to claim that Trump's diplomatic strategic consists of "favoring Putin" or something similar are flawed and don't really demonstrate an understanding of the diplomatic process or the facts on the ground in the Ukraine.
In terms of your post: Trump was never under any illusions that Putin is a good guy. Never had them. The fact is that he told the Europeans back in his first term to stop buying energy Russia. They laughed at him.
Let's go over what Russia and the US/Ukraine/EU/etc. all want here:
-End to the war
-Restoration of Ukrainian territory
-Repatriation of Ukrainian kids and detainees back home
The only way to start talking about these things is to get Putin to the negotiating table. Before we go there let's look at the facts on the ground:
-Ukraine lacks the dudes, the guns and the money to push the Russians out
-The front is essentially at a stalemate with neither side able to make sweeping gains
-The Ukrainian economy is essentially at zero
-Munitions expenditures are 3x anyone's projections
-The sanctions that the rest of the world have put on Russia aren't slowing down the war. Ergo, somebody else is bankrolling things. That would be China, who is buying up all the Russian oil and gas they can get.
Trump needs Putin to come to the table. Is the best way to do that to call him names? No.
So Trump tried and found out that Russia is comfortable enough with the status quo to let it go on indefinitely (because he's being bankrolled by China and to some extent the Europeans themselves).
Russia thus has zero incentive to stop the war, give up any of the territory it's seized and return any of the Ukrainians it's kidnapped. Now it's time for Plan B.
No. of Recommendations: 8
The only way he backs out of the war, is if the military in Ukraine is improved/increased and NATO outspends the Russians. This is our edge and the only way it stops. He will never come to the table, name calling or no name calling, he only respects strength (and that is a question mark)
This is a version of the 1930's- he must be stopped here, he wasn't stopped in the 2010s and look at where we are.
No. of Recommendations: 2
The only way he backs out of the war, is if the military in Ukraine is improved/increased and NATO outspends the Russians. This is our edge and the only way it stops. He will never come to the table, name calling or no name calling, he only respects strength (and that is a question mark)
This is a version of the 1930's- he must be stopped here, he wasn't stopped in the 2010s and look at where we are.
True, however:
-Putin is ego-driven; from his point of view he can't back down no matter what it costs. He's willing to spend however many lives and materiel it takes.
-Russia isn't Nazi Germany. They don't have global reach and the only real threat they pose to the west is their nuclear arsenal. Put it this way: they can't subdue their lightly-armed neighbor, so there's no Cold War universe where Russian tanks drive all the way to Paris.
Now the kicker:
-NATO war stocks are being drawn dangerously low. That benefits...China. Should they want to get froggy over Taiwan or do something else, we need the ability to respond.
China is therefore *ecstatic* to bankroll this war for as long as it takes because it's making Russia weaker by the day and causing the west to expend its dollars and munitions. Win/win for them.
So how do you really bleed Russia white?
-Get the Europeans to zero out ALL the energy they buy from Russia. Not. One. Barrel. Of. Oil. Or even so much as a liter of natural gas. They should be buying all that from us.
-The Europeans need to radically jump-start their armaments industries. Germany has maybe 1 division they could deploy, no real Navy to speak of, and no real ability to manufacture weapons at the scale needed. Ditto the rest of Europe.
There's a reason why a lot of NATO countries are suddenly talking about spending 5% of their GDPs on defense when for decades they resisted even hitting 2%: they can see what needs to be done.
What I hope Trump does: Start putting some real sanctions with teeth in them on Russia's energy sector.
No. of Recommendations: 1
And here we go. This is what I'm talking about:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/14/politics/us-ukraine...“We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days,” Trump said. “Tariffs at about 100%, you’d call them secondary tariffs. You know what that means.”
A White House official clarified to CNN that when the president referred to “secondary tariffs,” he meant 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy Russian oil. The US conducts very little trade with Russia, making the secondary sanctions the piece with potentially the most bite.This is aimed at China.
No. of Recommendations: 5
90 deals in 90 days.
Where are the deals?
Concepts or sketches of deals don’t count.
Trump is simply flailing at this point.
5-D chess?
More like “I don’t know what I’m doing, but if I slap on tariffs while screaming and yelling, I’ll look busy. I can always TACO.”
No. of Recommendations: 2
Where are the deals?
What does this have to do with the Ukraine/Russia conflict?
No. of Recommendations: 2
-Get the Europeans to zero out ALL the energy they buy from Russia.
Russia isn't worried about selling energy. China and India will buy all they can--as long as it is well below market prices.
The West needs to stop the "shadow fleet" transporting Russian oil. Until that happens, all everyone is doing is TALKING--which does nothing. Stop the ships and sales stop (because there is no delivery of the goods).
No. of Recommendations: 3
Where are the deals?
What does this have to do with the Ukraine/Russia conflict?Wow, talking about ignoring what your boss told you--and everyone else too.
Spankee said, to everyone, Ukraine "does not have the cards". Spankee said he WOULD stop that war "within 24 hours". What day is it NOW ??? Or is that "too big" for you to count?
https://apnews.com/article/trump-russia-ukraine-wa...
No. of Recommendations: 2
berkfan,
after a decade (and some suspect much longer), trump casually mentioning he may NOW be getting played by putin is not a breakthrough.
first, putin is just a nobel prize nomination (or something meaningless) from getting out of this.
second, why wait another 50 days to take action after peace was to occur on day 1? could it be trump changes his mind or loses interest? has that ever happened before? regardless, i am certain trump will not cripple russia's war economy to any meaningful extent.
the bottom line is that these 4 years were a once in a generation opportunity (with allies) to pressure both russia and china at little relative cost to benefit western democracies. and we wasted it so a grifter would personally gain.
