No. of Recommendations: 2
Hi Manlobbi, thanks for the commentary. I agree that the consensus view on China, and Alibaba, is excessively negative. I hope that BABA can get back to growing cash flow at 15% per year, but I'd probably project a more conservative 10% given Chinese population is now declining and BABA is already so enormous and heavily used there.
I am holding on to my BABA, though I'm not too pleased with the prospect of 5 spinoffs, as presumably some of those will only be traded in Hong Kong, presenting additional expenses if/when I eventually sell.
But, the Chinese government has hopefully finished punishing Alibaba and other tech companies ... I know they made a number of moves to get in line with government directions. Also, China has hopefully put the vast bulk of impacts from Covid in the rear view mirror, which should help growth resume.
I saw recent news that Alibaba is focusing on growing their European business, which would be a huge market for them to grow into if it works out.
I do worry some about the moves to consolidate power by Xi.