No. of Recommendations: 24
The Republican Party certainly doesn't want to see those kinds of gas prices lasting through Memorial Day and the Fourth of July, which a months-long blockade would certainly entail. Perhaps Trump, who never has to run for re-election again, might not care.
Krugman has an interesting take on this: “Can a guy who won’t even admit Joe Biden won the 2020 election ever be able to admit he lost a war?”
I think not. Therefore, Tehran has to give up, eventually, or Trump has to be swept out of office, sooner rather than later. The second option seems iffy, given that it takes 67 votes to convict in the Senate - so much of the debate centers around the conflict between the hardliners and the semi-moderates in Tehran.
One estimate (I believe in the WSJ) is that Iran is able to replace about 40% of their “Strait” oil sales with rail and truck shipments through neighboring countries, and replace a similar amount of consumer imports via those same smuggling routes overland. Is that enough to sustain them through a long conflict? I wouldn’t presume to know, except that it’s clear the regime doesn’t really care about the health of the populace, except as it is necessary to ensure their continued power as a ruling force.
One option for Iran is to open up the war again by attacking oil production elsewhere as they did in the first phase to drive prices up even further and put pressure on Trump/the US. With the Strait effectively closed (to both sides) this seems to be the only strategy they might employ short of negotiating an end - but then that requires giving up the uranium stores which they now might consider existential to their survival.
I am reminded of a meme I saw a couple weeks ago, that negotiating the first JCPOA nuclear deal took a couple years, involved experts from the nuclear industry, potential international inspection teams, diplomats with experience in Iran, political leaders from both US parties, members of the Joint Chiefs, other mid-eastern leaders as well as others, and this time our team consists of two real estate guys and JD Vance, who jerked off with a couch.
Sounds like a plan.
