No. of Recommendations: 14
Thinking out loud my expectations for Berkshire are very modest.
Living outside the US adds a significant fx risk, which is essentially a gamble that can go either way. I personally wouldn’t bet against the USD v GBP but it’s still a gamble.
Everyone would agree that companies that can compound, at decent returns and have a big addressable market to go after, are valuable and deserve a high market rating. The opposite is also true.
Berkshire is not making high returns. They are decent but not high.
The addressable market that Berkshire can go after in investing activity is already very small relative to capital.
Gemini returns the 19 companies below when asked for US companies with >$100 billion market capitalization and a 15% net profit margin. (Keeping it simple and using margin as a measure of quality). Large and arguably strong companies. Berkshire already owns a few. Berkshire probably thinks some are too expensive to buy and may not think they are all great companies. This is a very small list.
With Warren eventually fully retiring, the universe of investable companies must shrink further. Greg is probably not going to have as broad an industry knowledge as Warren. But maybe he is a learning machine. We will see.
Growing the insurance businesses? If there was a huge untapped well of profitable premiums, Berkshire would have already captured it.
Expanding existing wholly owned businesses - we can probably expect modest growth here. They operate in long established mature sectors.
Why then do some of the world’s most astute investors continue to let the cash pile up. They obviously think Berkshire can get bigger in short bursts during the right conditions. Whether that is: equities on sale; private companies on sale; or favourable insurance prices.
In short, I’m very happy to hold some Berkshire and benefit under certain conditions (the optionally argument) but as it’s not going to be a consistent and high compounder, it’s not going to trade at a fancy price. To do well it needs to be bought at a good price, which is maybe 30% lower than currently.
“This elite group represents the "Gold Standard" of American business—companies that have achieved massive scale while maintaining high efficiency.
As of April 2026, here are the primary US-based companies that meet these strict criteria:
The Tech & AI Heavyweights
These companies dominate the list because software and high-end silicon have negligible marginal costs compared to their sales price.
• Nvidia (NVDA): ~$4.9T Market Cap | ~55-60% Net Margin
• Microsoft (MSFT): ~$3.1T Market Cap | ~36% Net Margin
• Alphabet (GOOGL): ~$3.9T Market Cap | ~26% Net Margin
• Apple (AAPL): ~$3.8T Market Cap | ~26% Net Margin
• Meta Platforms (META): ~$1.5T Market Cap | ~34% Net Margin
• Broadcom (AVGO): ~$1.5T Market Cap | ~33-39% Net Margin
• Oracle (ORCL): ~$510B Market Cap | ~20% Net Margin
• Adobe (ADBE): ~$280B Market Cap | ~25% Net Margin
Financials & Payments (The "Toll Booths")
These companies benefit from taking a small percentage of trillions of dollars in global transactions with very little overhead.
• Visa (V): ~$610B Market Cap | ~52% Net Margin
• Mastercard (MA): ~$480B Market Cap | ~45% Net Margin
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): ~$850B Market Cap | ~30-34% Net Margin
• S&P Global (SPGI): ~$175B Market Cap | ~32% Net Margin
• BlackRock (BLK): ~$140B Market Cap | ~30% Net Margin
Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals
Recent breakthroughs in GLP-1 medications and specialized biotech have kept margins in this sector extremely high for the leaders.
• Eli Lilly (LLY): ~$860B Market Cap | ~20-25% Net Margin
• AbbVie (ABBV): ~$300B Market Cap | ~18% Net Margin
• Merck (MRK): ~$290B Market Cap | ~16-20% Net Margin
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX): ~$120B Market Cap | ~35-40% Net Margin
Consumer & Industrials (Brand Power)
It is much harder for physical-goods companies to maintain a 15% net margin, making these outliers particularly impressive.
• Coca-Cola (KO): ~$285B Market Cap | ~23% Net Margin
• Caterpillar (CAT): ~$370B Market Cap | ~15% Net Margin
• Texas Instruments (TXN): ~$160B Market Cap | ~30% Net Margin (Semiconductors classified as Industrial tech)”
