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- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 4
The Big Beautiful Bill just passed the House.
Now on to reconciliation.
No. of Recommendations: 12
The Big Beautiful Bill just passed the House.
Now on to reconciliation.
Minor correction - the budget resolution setting the directions for the BBB passed the House. Now on to drafting the actual BBB.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Minor correction - the budget resolution setting the directions for the BBB passed the House. Now on to drafting the actual BBB.
What's the point of that? Why not vote on the drafted bill? I'm assuming this is one of those non-binding resolutions. Seems like a waste of time given that everyone already knows what they want the bill to do. It's not new information for anyone. (Leaving aside that what they want the bill to do is stupid.)
No. of Recommendations: 7
What's the point of that? Why not vote on the drafted bill?Because the budget and reconciliation processes are more complicated than that, and the bill hasn't been drafted yet.
In a nutshell, the chambers first vote on a series of budget resolutions that establish some top-line numbers and include directions to the various committees in how to draft the portions of the spending packages that fall within their jurisdiction. Here's a primer on the process and the Senate bill:
A budget resolution is a document that outlines desired spending, revenue, debt, and deficit levels for the federal government over a specified period (often 10 years). It is the first step Congress is supposed to take in order to pass annual spending bills ahead of the October 1 start of the fiscal year; it also enables the reconciliation process. Under the 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act (CBA), Congress is supposed to complete action on the budget resolution by April 15, though it often fails to do so.https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-th...The hardline fiscal conservatives in the House were upset because the Senate budget resolution included relatively modest instructions to reduce spending, compared to the House. The Senate bill only directed $4 billion in spending cuts, compared to the more than 1$ trillion in the House reconciliation instructions.
Now the work of actually
drafting the BBB begins. Because the instructions represent a floor on spending cuts, the House holdouts were mollified by public assurances by Thune (and presumably others) that the Senate will actually end up cutting far more than the reconciliation instructions mandate as a minimum.
No. of Recommendations: 2
...the Senate will actually end up cutting far more than the reconciliation instructions mandate as a minimum.
And what happens when they can't do that? Again, I'm assuming the resolution is non-binding. So, I suspect, nothing happens.
They can't preserve Medicare/SS/Medicaid, while slashing taxes (both of which the Felon wants). And they could entirely eliminate the DOD, and still not balance the budget. And they won't slash DOD (I've read they actually want to increase it). Like Yang said: "it's math".
No. of Recommendations: 4
And what happens when they can't do that?
If they don't have the votes, then they can't pass a bill. But I think that's a low-probability outcome. If they don't pass the bill, then all the Trump tax cuts from 2017 expire at the end of the year - which would set off a bomb in the economy. They can't not do that.
So a lot of electeds in the GOP caucus are going to have to hold their noses and vote for something that they dislike. This contretemps was the Freedom Caucus getting some public assurance that they're not going to be the only ones having to make a vote they hate - they've got the Senate leadership on record that the final bill will have some spending cuts that are going to make frontline moderate GOP Senators unhappy, too.
They can't preserve Medicare/SS/Medicaid, while slashing taxes (both of which the Felon wants).
True, but they can "preserve" Medicare/SS/Medicaid. They'll try to come up with some requirements to fight "waste, fraud, and abuse" which will score as spending reductions by the CBO, but that they can try to spin as not actually cutting anyone's legitimate benefits. If they're worried about blowback from the midterms, Trump can just have CMS refuse to actually implement those measures before the 2026 elections (so no one's benefits actually get cut) - he's perfectly fine with not following the requirements of congressional budget laws anyway.
No. of Recommendations: 1
If I am a senator, I'm filibustering. Unless this is one of those "continuing resolutions" that is immune to the filibuster. More tax cuts? Gonna filibuster that**. Assuming they can corral all their members to vote "yea", which isn't a guarantee.
**Because they will be aimed at the wealthy. We already know that before we even see the text.
No. of Recommendations: 2
There is allegedly an understanding on the table between the House and the Senate to cut $1.5T dollars. As I've seen opined it probably goes like this:
-The House wants $1.5T cut today
-The Senate will do the "$1.5T over 10 years) with all of the cuts coming in years 8,9 and 10...meaning we never see any cuts.
No. of Recommendations: 7
If I am a senator, I'm filibustering. Unless this is one of those "continuing resolutions" that is immune to the filibuster.
It's the reconciliation process that's exempted from the filibuster, and yes - that's what this is traveling under. So they don't need any Dem senate votes, and probably don't expect to get any.
The needle they have to thread is to satisfy the moderate "purple district" Reps and the handful of GOP Senators that don't favor Medicaid cuts, while also satisfying the Freedom Caucus spending cut hardliners who want to reduce spending by $1 trillion over the ten year budget horizon. Unsurprisingly, both of those factions want it to be the other faction that has to take the most bites out of the turd sandwich. Unfortunately for the Chip Roys of the House, there really isn't as strong of a Freedom Caucus hardline faction over on the Senate side (hence the weaker Senate instructions). The hardliner holdout that was just attempted (and caved) was an effort to get a -commitment from Thune and the Senate that they'll actually include some steep cuts in the final bill.
