No. of Recommendations: 5
Think I'll top up the gas tank in my car today. Gas is already up 30 cents, since last weekend's "special military operation". Is it? Where do you live? Per GasBuddy, the national average is still only $2.80 per gallon - lower than it's been since the pandemic, other than the five-year-low it hit shortly after Christmas:
https://www.gasbuddy.com/chartsIf anything, oil and gas prices remain
super low relative to the last decade or so:
In May, when oil was trading at around the same levels it is today, Travis Stice, executive chair of Diamondback Energy (FANG), an independent exploration and production firm, said the industry was already looking over the edge of a cliff.
"There have only been two quarters since 2004 where [oil prices] have been as cheap as they are today," excluding 2020's anomaly, Stice wrote in a letter to shareholders. "Therefore, we believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices."https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-wants-oil-pri...Which, BTW, is another internal contradiction in Trump's policy towards Venezuela, and apparently towards oil in general. As noted in the above article, he wants to keep oil prices low - around $50 per barrel. But he also wants massive U.S. private investment in Venezuela's oil fields. But that investment isn't
close to economically feasible at such lower prices. This seems to be more about the U.S. gaining
control over oil resources and having them at our disposal, rather than getting oil prices higher. But that's not going to happen if it's not economically viable:
New supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ cartel, combined with fears of an economic slowdown stemming from Trump’s tariffs, depressed oil prices throughout 2025. Drillers, who have for years embraced Wall Street’s demands for capital discipline, kept their spending in check despite Trump’s exhortations and a plethora of deregulatory actions meant to spur drilling.
“Investors don’t care about energy dominance. They care about energy dividends,” said Clay Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://archive.ph/8KukL#selection-1455.0-1459.170The only likely answer is for the U.S. government to backstop private investment in Venezuela with
massive economic guarantees. Investing in Venezuela with a government that doesn't have real laws and a history of nationalizing assets is a super high-risk prospect. They'll need iron-clad protections:
Amos Hochstein, managing partner at investment group TWG Global and a former adviser to former president Joe Biden, said investing in Venezuela was fraught with legal, financial and political risk. American oil companies needed to know whether they would be shielded beyond Trump’s term in office, he said.
“US companies need to know who their counterparties are. Are they signing deals with the Venezuelan government? Is the Venezuelan government legitimate?”
Hochstein added: “For the next three years these companies will have to put money in and no revenue will come out until much later. And at that point Donald Trump will no longer be the president.” https://archive.ph/B4kQX#selection-2077.0-2085.198But that creates another internal contradiction for Trump's policy. He probably can't create anything that will outlast his term without getting Congress involved. But his entire approach to Venezuela (and most of his policy) has been to use solely Executive power. He can make the Navy cause massive pain for Venezuela, he can get Rubio to coerce/cajole the government into doing things in the short-term....but he probably can't give the oil majors what they would need in order to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure. Which would be a brand new government in Venezuela
and an act of Congress for some type of investment guarantee.
