It is difficult for an ongoing business (or an investor) to go bankrupt without debt.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks D / Dollar General (DG)
No. of Recommendations: 6
BusinessWeek not too happy:
'
The thing that concerns us about Dollar General is the consistency with which we find similar hazards at workplace after workplace,' says Doug Parker, head of the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration. 'The potential for catastrophe is very real.'A litany of troubles:
"...$9 million issued last year, double the fines aimed at Dollar Tree. OSHA has accused Dollar General of repeatedly, sometimes willfully, exposing employees to needless risks'of being struck by falling products, electrocuted by unsafe equipment, sickened by poor pest control or trapped in a fire. The agency says the company failed to..."Etc
"
This is something that investors see as a pretty big risk factor for them,' says Donna Anderson, corporate governance head at T. Rowe Price Group Inc"
Worth a read, I think, if you're investing or considering
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-09-20...--sutton
No. of Recommendations: 1
This disregard for employee safety adds to the DG employee hiring concern I have had about DG being known as the lowest paying retail business. I am rethinking staying with my DG turnaround trade.
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 0
I have never seen such piling on by the financial press and Wall Street downgrades AFTER -60% decline.
No. of Recommendations: 21
I have the opposite reaction. Dollar General stores have been pretty hit or miss on quality for a very long time, much like the local 7-Eleven or Circle K. If the typical consumer household income for a store is $35, 000, you are not going to get the same shopping experience as you might in a Whole Foods or even Target (particularly at the chain's worst stores from a count of 20, 000). DG has also struggled on the safety front for quite some time.
I grew up relatively poor. I've worked a variety of rough retail and other similar jobs. This included a stint working at the local Wal-Mart. I'll say this: rats and bird shit and unsafely stacked merch at Dollar General conjure up images, to be sure, but they are hardly unique to Dollar General. While there may be a difference of degree, I would not have had a hard time coming up with anecdotes that might fuel a Bloomberg piece on why working at Wal-Mart was the second worst retail job in America (after Dollar General, apparently).
The business press is doing what it always does -- subsequent to gloom brought on by (at least partially justified) price actions, it is building post hoc narratives and selling clicks. Many of these narratives were just as applicable when DG was richly overvalued, and offer little to no explanatory value. But who wants to read a story about the rats at the local Wal-Mart SuperCenter, when WMT is trading at 31 P/E?
To be clear: none of this is to say that DG has been smooth sailing as of late. There is reasons for at least some of the drop in price. Management decided to run up debt up on share buybacks at perhaps the worst possible time (unless you're the retiring CEO & CFO). DG also dropped the ball on pricing in the last year, leading to losing foot traffic to Family Dollar and WMT, and raising issues about management going forward. They've also appeared to drop the ball on labour & labour safety for probably a least a few years now, and are only starting to right the ship (is it enough? hard to say). As an aside, I have not seen much discussion about the fact that the $150 million investment in 'Smart Teams' is really just an admission that they made a mistake in cutting the program (wherein roving employees go store to store to help with stock), which I understand they routinely had in place a few years back.
The business press is doing what they are always doing. They're following the price, not explaining it. It's why Barron's covers and Cramer sell calls are often contrary indicators. The business press loves talking about a stock after a major fall in price, and specifically about how obvious it is that it was a crummy business all along. Doubly so when its an outfit that Dollar General or META, when many readers didn't have much love for the business model in the first place.
No. of Recommendations: 7
The business press loves talking about a stock after a major fall in price, and specifically about how obvious it is that it was a crummy business all along. Doubly so when its an outfit that Dollar General or META, when many readers didn't have much love for the business model in the first place.
I think this is exactly right. All of these quality problems have been around for years, for dollar stores, and yet they have done well. Now that they have had disappointing earnings for a couple of quarters, we hear about how terrible they are, how there's rampant theft, the aisles are filthy, the big stores have better prices, etc. etc., and it all seems more convincing now that the glow has gone off their stock price. But I haven't seen any convincing evidence that there has been any tectonic shift that will make these shitty stores any less profitable than before.
META is a very good comparison. I bought a bunch of shares under $100, because a couple of bad quarters (overspending on metaverse R&D, Apple cutting into their advertising dollar) led to headlines everywhere that their business model was dead. Unfortunately, I sold at about $200, and should have stayed around for $300, the current price.
Except for a few instances where the business model really is broken, the word should be, "This too shall pass." You can never be entirely sure whether the dip is temporary, or the beginning of a long-term decline, but I see no convincing evidence of the latter. And if it is a dip, the current price will end up being a very nice entry point. Reminder to self: don't sell at $200.
Regards, DTB
No. of Recommendations: 3
Ever wonder about the condition of rural households earning $35/k?
Disorganized and messy might not be as uncomfortable as one might think...if the price is right.
Maybe i'm just saying the quiet part out loud.
m
No. of Recommendations: 3
I would recommend this 100 times if I could..."All of these quality problems have been around for years, for dollar stores, and yet they have done well."
This is the classic Wall street honchos doing their thing....errr...They first stick with a company ride it all the way high....and then they come out at the top....wait for 1 or 2 bad earnings...and then go on a witch hunt, using everything they have - short the stock, make sure the paid media talks endlessly the negatives and blow them out of proportion....I sometimes wonder how is this even legal, but you learn and move on
Like DTB mentioned, did all these DG stores suddenly turn into horrible places...just look at the amount of negative articles on DG in the last couple of weeks....and then the mindless JPM analyst downgrades...where were all these when DG was in $230s..For god's sake, the media went on a limb stating these are the quintessential recession proof stocks!!!
This too shall pass...It might go up or down in the next few quarters....but I don't see how DG store is not going to exist for another 10 -15 years...and if that is the case, I think they will do quite well!!!
