No. of Recommendations: 3
New investor preso
https://www.esperion.com/static-files/3bd22c66-d8a...Net is scripts more important, for trends, than sales due to rebate lumpiness, making q/q sales flat yet scripts up 12% q/q.
You would think a q1 q/q bounceback in Sales if Scripts stay solid. Will see.
Announced triple combo which should extend patent life.
Investor day still April 24th.
Some highlights here:
https://x.com/LucidDreamer397/status/1896938868395...US Sales
2024 Rev = $115m approx
2025 proj Rev (my goal) = $172m for 50% y/y growth
Other expected revenue
*$130m in Otsuka milestones by/before Q425
*$40m in misc non-Europe royalties and “collaboration” rev which is mainly -pill/product reimbursement. Total guesstimate.
*Excludes royalties for DSE/Europe, as those rights were sold to OMERS for $300m+ and revert back to Esperion after OMERS makes 1.7x their investment, which is tentatively projected as 2028.
So my bingo card has something like $340m in total sales for 2025.
They owe $65m in notes due in Nov.
That leaves $275m.
Expenses at high-end proj to be $235m
So they should come away with $40m to add to their cash, barring some new developments. Believe cash was currently $144m.
So they will burn some cash Q1-Q2 and probably Q3, and once Otsuka milestones hit, their accounts will be flush again.
Qtrly revenues are harder to predict. I would have said Q1 trends indicate a likely pop due to the seasonal impacts of how Medicare works, which led to pop in Q124 and flattish Q424 despite script growth being steady and up to right along the way. CFO claiming new rules make that lumpiness smooth out. So unclear what the Q1 number should be. But a guess:
US Sales in 2025
Q1 $36m
Q2 $40m
Q3 $46m
Q4 $50m (typically weaker due to holidays?)
that comes out to $172m, so will go with that for now.
Dreamer
