For whatever it's worth, if near term valuation levels and business results were to resemble those typical of the stretch since January 2008, then from the current price of $432.19 per B share, the one year forward return might be expected to be around inflation - 13.6%. If inflation were to come out at 3.25%, that would mean an expected market price of $385.50 in a year.

That's the average of a six different models all looking only at data since the crunch, range of predictions inflation - 18% to inflation - 6.9%.

Of course I hope for more, preferably because the company's underlying businesses prosper more than I have expected.

Current ratio of price to peak-to-date known book is 1.630 (97th percentile since 2008).
If June book per share is about where I've estimated, then the current price is about 1.54 times that (91st percentile).
Average price-to-peak-known-book since 2008 has been 1.361.

P/B isn't perfect as a metric, but so far it's about as good as it ever was.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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