Post #5179 by james22 on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤

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Personally I base retirement withdrawal ideas on a fixed fraction of portfolio liquidated each period, not a forever-fixed real dollar amount of withdrawals. Putting up with a bit of variation in income hugely simplifies the planning: it eliminates the need for whole swathes of projections of the future, and all the risks arising from errors in those projections. e.g, if you sell 4% of every remaining position every year, you know with certainty that you'll still have 44.2% as many shares of everything after 20 years.

There's more than "a bit of variation" in income with a constant 4% withdrawal. Withdrawal amounts might be depressed by around 50% for an extended period:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/05/09/the-ulti...

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