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I saved too much. Probably.

Or retired too late, but I'm in my mid-50s now so still think I caught an extra 10-20 years that many will not.

Spend rate on the port for 2025 was a mere 1.4% of the gross. I'm shooting for a whopping 2-3% this year but probably won't hit that unless I buy an expensive classic muscle car, which is highly unlikely as my wife hasn't assessed the utility at the same level as I.

Seems a pretty good SWR, especially considering the market appreciation for the year was about 4x what we spent. Also, 2025 was the most expensive year we've had even accounting for inflation, since I started tracking all expenditures by year. I started this to get a real sense of when we had enough accrued, which I've been tracking for about 6-7 years.

Some people look at monthly expenses but I find expenses are much more lumpy and some months were as much as 3x others in 2025, but most years are about the same as others. We did a low 5 figure sum of home renovations, and some white shoe legal estate work, and a few other elective and pricier outlays we hadn't done in prior years, which is why the spend rate was higher.

Still spending down the taxable account a-ok and it will last easily until I decide to take SS and my 2nd pension kicks in, in about 9 years. All sales so far are of Apple, which I mostly bought when Jobs was still alive fortunately. I'm about to roll the first year of the 5 year CD/bond/annuity ladder into a five year somethingorother.

What did 2025 tell me? All this retirement planning stuff works, and so far, swimmingly.

Don't wait too long to retire (but also these clowns that say you can retire on like, $250k with no pension or such are high).

Our expenses are also pretty lumpy. Might have a vacation or a larger house expense one month and not the next one. Estimated taxes, etc.

I think it helps a ton with stress if you are lucky enough to retire and then have the first 3-5 yrs in retirement provide nice returns in the stock market/investments. When you look at yearly numbers and see your total portfolio increasing despite spending more than you expected (largely due to inflation on things like insurance, utilities and house maintenance items) it is nice.

I'm also pretty heavy in fixed income (most treasuries) so while it still would worry me, a sizable stock market drop really wouldn't affect us for at least a decade.

Rich

I'm also pretty heavy in fixed income (most treasuries)...

I'm not a bond/t-bill guy. I understand the basics, but that's about it. That said, I wouldn't be investing my money in the US government right now. They are headed for disaster, as near as I can tell, and pretty much no one in charge right now is competent. The Fed chairman may be the only thing holding it together.

Could treasuries become worthless (or nearly so)? I'm thinking with incompetent leadership in the halls of power, "yes". I'm not sure. But betting on the USA right now seems unwise. I'll stick with betting on companies that can navigate the bad times (hopefully). YMMV.

I read many years ago that bonds aren't really "safe", and they don't always move in opposition to equities. Both can (and have) dropped like stones at the same time.

I forgot - if asked "so...why did you save too much?" I would answer as such:

Conservative outlook, in two words. I get a pension...but when I'm gone, it is gone (we decided to forego the DoD's pension insurance, which is arithmetically not very good). Carrying that further, I don't count on Social Security. I read Kotlikoff and Burns' "The Coming Generational Storm" in 2004, and when a Nobel economist and storied financial columnist tell you that SS is in for rough waters, it resonates.

Backing those off, I still have enough to sustain the household lifestyle (assuming no calamities worse than any of the Monte Carlo simulations predict) for 40+ years.

There was an unanticipated addition to inflows - disability. The Army tore me up, and as of last year, I'm getting paid some for it. It isn't eff you money, but it is enough that it cuts down the demand on portfolio withdrawals in a measurable fashion.

So, minus pension, SS, disability, we're good. Maybe I need to spend more, donate more, lots of time to figure that out. We tipped like gangbusters in Hawaii last month (and still hope to move there when the conditions are right).

Here's why I'm not too worried about treasuries and the dollar.

Short term hits, reputational hit, sure.

But every market is denominated in dollars. Silver, bitcoin, hog futures, stock exchanges (sure, not the Nikkei, but who cares). Nobody quotes the price of anything in bitcoin. Everything is priced in dollars. Even if you watch like, Canadian YouTubers talk about cars, they put the CAD price *and* the USD price in their videos. You will buy your car in dollars, not in ethereum. You will buy your house in dollars, not a sack of gold coins.

Fedwire and the ACH network do trillions of dollars of transactions. These are going nowhere. Whatever alternative the BRICS countries want won't supplant it.

I read sometime last year that various entities are looking to switch to Euros. Obviously, if you buy a house in the US, it will be dollars. But for many other things the US has become unreliable, and leadership inept. Hence the talk about switching to Euros for a lot of international activities.

I agree about bitcoin. That isn't a real currency, IMO. That's a non-starter. But Euros are legit.

I read sometime last year that various entities are looking to switch to Euros. ... But for many other things the US has become unreliable, and leadership inept. Hence the talk about switching to Euros for a lot of international activities.


It is a mistake to let politics -- or the current news cycle, or emotion -- drive your investing. Or "talk".

In terms of GDP, #1 is USA at $30.6T, China is #2 at $19.4T, and #3 is $5T. So it's US, China, and a couple hundred also-rans.

It won't stay this way forever, but it likely will stay this way far past our grandchildren's granchildren's lifetimes.


Interestingly, the top GDP per Capita is Monaco. Hats off to Jim.




Here's what google AI coughed up:

"The U.S. share of the global GDP is around 24% to 26% by nominal value, making it the world's largest economy"

"The U.S. share of global trade fluctuates but remains significant, ranking as a top global importer and exporter of goods,
In recent years (e.g., 2022/2023), the U.S. was the world's leading goods importer and second-largest goods exporter (after China)

Goods Trade: The U.S. is a dominant force, often ranking #1 in imports and #2 in exports of goods globally.

Services Trade: The U.S. is a leading exporter and importer of services, running a surplus in this sector.

Trade-to-GDP Ratio: The U.S. has a lower trade-to-GDP ratio (around 27% in 2022) compared to the global average (around 63%), indicating less reliance on trade relative to its economy's size than some peers.


Overall Position
Despite its massive trade volume, the U.S.'s share of total world trade has slightly declined over decades due to rapid growth in developing economies, but it remains a pivotal player.

In Summary: The United States is a major global trader, holding leading positions in importing and exporting goods, and leading in services,"


Read that bit again: "The U.S. is a dominant force [in international trade], often ranking #1 in imports and #2 in exports of goods globally."

Buyers dominate trade, sellers can't sell unless buyers buy. EVERYBODY sells to the US, if the US stopped or cut down buying it would decimate many countries' economies.
On the flip side, evidently everybody wants to buy what the US is selling.

I saw a bit of surprising (to me) news yesterday.
"Southwestern Arkansas has emerged as a premier U.S. lithium hub, estimating 5 to 19 million tons of lithium in brine within the Smackover Formation.
The 5–19 million tons of lithium reserves could position the region as a leading global supplier"
Go Razorbacks!


Also:
"Foreign countries own roughly 25-30% of the total U.S. government debt"

"Why Foreigners Buy Treasuries:
Safety: Backed by the U.S. government's promise ("full faith and credit").
Liquidity: The U.S. Treasury market is massive and easy to buy/sell.
Reserve Currency: Used by central banks for their foreign exchange reserves.
"

In terms of GDP, #1 is USA at $30.6T, China is #2 at $19.4T,

A quick check says the EU is $22.5T. So it's ahead of China.

Also, while I don't dispute your data, I am just relaying what I read sometime last summer (I think) about many nations wanting to move away from the dollar and towards euros. I don't know what all goes into making those sorts of decisions. I'm sure a lot. And nations -apparently- are talking about it.**


**And not just BRIC, which was talking about it anyway since they don't like us much.

A quick check says the EU is $22.5T. So it's ahead of China.

Sure. But the EU isn't a country. It is a conglomeration of countries, each of which have their own economy and interests.

Sure. But the EU isn't a country. It is a conglomeration of countries, each of which have their own economy and interests.

Sure. But the whole point was to merge their economies. Which they have done. So it is appropriate to treat it as a single economic entity. Similar to how CA has it's own GDP, but it is lumped in with the other 49 states (and possibly US territories...not sure about that?). Even if they have their own interests and concerns. CA GDP exceeds the GDP of at least half the nations on the planet.

{{ CA GDP exceeds the GDP of at least half the nations on the planet. }}

California's $4 trillion GDP would rank it 4th or 5th after the US, China, Germany, and possibly Japan.

intercst

<i A quick check says the EU is $22.5T. So it's ahead of China. >i
<i Sure. But the EU isn't a country. It is a conglomeration of countries, each of which have their own economy and interests. >i

Kind of like STATES!!!!!

Another interesting but about CA and GDP. The GDP of CA, NY, and TX are bigger than that of Russia. Florida is close. Russia only matters because they have nukes; they're a bit player in the economic sense.

Sure. But the EU isn't a country. It is a conglomeration of countries, each of which have their own economy and interests.

It’s a single unified economy with no barriers to the movement of goods, services, or people. Why do you think the UK left?

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