No. of Recommendations: 12
Or he was the one no-one liked, and always resented not being in the group playing, so now he's playing "Risk" with real armies and countries?
Or is he being blackmailed by "Bibi", with videos of his indiscreet shenanigans in Epstein's honey pot?
Or is it baldfaced greed?
My guess would be none of the above. I suspect it's far simpler. He thought it would work.
I think that he was emboldened by the success of the Venezuela operation. He got what he regarded as a huge positive outcome, with minimal intervention. High reward for very little cost. He believed the same could be achieved in Iran - that if the U.S. struck and took out the existing leadership, one of the following would happen:
1. There would be an Iranian "Delcy" that would come forward, seize power, and be eager to strike a deal; or
2. The regime would collapse and be replaced with something better - or at least no longer capable of pursuing nuclear weapons; or
3. The regime would survive but quickly sue for peace, after they realize they can't resist the U.S. military.
I'm pretty sure that Trump was well aware that Iran could shut down the strait, and that it would be a serious problem if they did. I just think it didn't stop him from pulling the trigger. He's a guy that is unafraid of risks, and believes very strongly that weaker players will submit - rather than resist - stronger players. I think he just didn't let the possibility that the regime would survive and be in a position to seize the strait or attack the other gulf states affect the final decision. Prior Presidents would ask, well what if that happened - and since that problem had never been "solved" by any potential U.S. response they determined that attacking Iran was ill-advised. Trump did not.
