No. of Recommendations: 10
* 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14/26
S&P 500 Index 7674.37 7711.76 7718.60 7656.98
Trailing 12 month PE 29.46 29.79 26.36 25.93
Trail Earnings yield 3.39% 3.36% 3.79% 3.86%
Forward 12 month PE 20.28 20.25 20.23 19.05
Fwd Earnings Yield 4.93% 4.94% 4.94% 5.25%
90 day tbill yield 3.88 3.90 3.91 4.07
10 year tbond yield 4.74% 4.73% 4.78% 4.96%
Arezi Ratio 1.14 1.16 1.03 1.05
Fed Ratio 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.94
The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.
The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.
The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 67%
stocks, 33% cash this week.
Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish
A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 47%.
An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 78%.
Elan