No. of Recommendations: 2
I would say Trump's actions in Venezuela, and the Caribbean, render previous statements against military intervention no longer operative.
I'm not talking about "military intervention" as a general concept. Trump's foreign policy, like his domestic policy, isn't bound to adhere to any coherent theory, or even the mere basics of internal consistency. He's going to do what he feels in his gut in any particular circumstance. So if he wants to go into Venezuela but doesn't want to go into Iran, that's what he'll do.
I don't think Trump especially wants to go into Iran. Not because of any commitment to any coherent "MAGA" ideology on intervention. It's just that there's no real upside for his goals in the region, and a ton of downside. I think he's considering it, because Iran is big and important and can't be ignored in the region - and I think he wants to shape the outcome if the regime collapses, and getting in early might allow that. But having the tensions in the region explode into actual war between the Iranian and opposing forces? Hard to see how that helps him do anything he wants to do there....
