No. of Recommendations: 7
This is very interesting. It sounds like something close to an option (European style at first, and in the secondary thought experiment it is US style). In general, nobody will give away an option for free, they usually want to be paid something for it. And most of the time, the way they calculate what they want (need) to be paid for it is using volatility, interest rates, etc. The major difference in this case is that the option is denominated in a commodity rather than in a fiat currency. I haven't thought about it too deeply, but perhaps this could be modeled as some sort of combination of two options, one denominated in BRKA versus US$ and the other denominated in BTC versus US$? Maybe an actual value based on real market actions could even be determined!
I wonder if someone would have taken the deal if you offered some sort of option premium up front? Probably still not.
Bear in mind that it wasn't asking for the option for free, as there was a price ratio negotiation against a valuable asset...it was more like a swap than an option, especially as there was no optionality. The sale was binding, with only the closing date variable in one scenario.
But from the point of view of someone thinking bitcoin is money, it was merely the purchase of some Berkshire shares. Since delivery was at a future date (but not conditional), it would have had an additional amount for me equating to interest I was foregoing prior to close. Equivalently, it would most closely resemble a single stock futures contract with physical delivery.
Arguably, though, Berkshire was by comparison the reasonably stable store of value and unit of account and medium of exchange--the "money" side of the transaction--and it was therefore more like a futures contract on my future purchase of some bitcoin. I'd just be paying for them with some B shares instead of greenbacks.
As it happens, the ratio has barely budged since the offer...net. It was 10.73 bitcoin per A share when the post was done, and it's 10.01 now. The ratio rose to 30 (Berkshire pulling ahead) then dropped right back. The fact that this curve does not correspond at all to the trajectory of the price of Berkshire shares measured in any stable currency demonstrates (as if we needed it) that bitcoin isn't a meaningful unit of account and therefore can not meaningfully act as money.
Jim
