No. of Recommendations: 1
Berkshire is a value investing company, and requires earnings or assets to support value. So in that line of thinking I hope this isn't too off topic.
I'm finding it much cheaper to short DJT than it was at the end of April. This is despite the stock trading down 45% down from its April/May prices (now at $27.2 vs $49.16). A few examples:
January 2025 Puts (aiming for after the election)
$25 Put $14.90 is now $9.7
$50 Put $37.30 is now $31.4
$100 Put $83.75 is now $78
From this date in May, the $25 Put required the stock to drop by 78% to reach break even. It now requires a drop of 42% to break even. The $50 Put required the stock drop by 72%, it now requires a drop of 24% to reach breakeven. The $100 Put required the stock drop by 64%, it now requires a drop of 12% to reach breakeven.
January 2026 Puts
$25 Put $17.55 vs $12.70 85% vs 55% loss to breakeven
$50 Put $38.70 vs $34.35 77% vs 42% loss to breakeven
$100 Put $85.90 vs $80.30 71% vs 26% loss to breakeven
There's of course now less time until these options expire, and at $27.20, the stock is less overvalued than it was at $49.16. But a number of key dates that should affect the valuation have not yet passed. It's only in September that the main stockholder's lockup period runs out and he can sell the stock, and the election is still 3 months away. 3 months after it received a lot of attention, it still does not look like the platform is popular with advertisers.
Maybe not a compelling idea to short this stock yet, but at least its a much more reasonable one than it was in April.
