No. of Recommendations: 6
I have a long term, small position in Huntsman (
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HUN/) that I've been paying more attention to recently. HUN trades at $9 today, and have a 52 week range of $8-$24. They haven't been at this level since 2016, and were as high as $40 in 2022.
The decrease is warranted from what I've found. They've had a number of downgrades, downward revisions at the top and bottom line from analysts, and disappointed on earnings. They are downsizing and restructuring in response to reduced demand in their end markets.
On the other hand, they are not so expensive. P/S is 0.27, market cap is $1.6B, FCF is low but positive in the last quarter and TTM. They seem to have adequate short term liquidity.
The dividend is $1 (11% yield) doesn't appear to be sustainable at that level.
It's a small, low conviction position for me, that I consider as much as a sentinel. I'm curious for the opinions of anyone who follows HUN more closely.
Given the BRK / OxyChem acquisition, I bought a few long dated out of the money calls to get slightly more net long without tying up too much money in it. Without doing much more research it looks like OxyChem was approximately 7.5x EBIDTA without assuming any debt, so HUN, with $300M and EV of $3.6B is well above that valuation. But they are not very comparable companies, either (specialty vs commodity chemicals, respectively).
I am posting here because 1) it feels like things will be getting more volatile sooner than later 2) I expect tax-loss harveting pressure on the shares and 3) because the dividend cut - if/when it happens - may also impact the share price. It seems like a company that may present interesting opportunities in the next 6 months.
