Avoid making negative or unhelpful posts, and instead focus on providing constructive feedback and ideas that can help to move the discussion forward.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 5
No. of Recommendations: 1
Nice chart. Are the figures inflation adjusted before being fed into the smoothing and graphing?
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 2
No.
I have 2 versions. The one I originally created 1:1 after yours, with inflation adjustment, lastly updated sometime last year. And for whatever reason (simplicity?) this one, where I do not care about inflation.
No problemo (as Alf would say). I will update the inflation adjustment version as well and publish it here if time allows***
***I will be a little busy at least today as 5 days before the war started I bought a ticket Auckland-Frankfurt for 17.March --- with Qatar Airways, via Doha!
Yesterday Qatar emailed that I am "eligible for a refund of the unused value of your ticket, or two complimentary date changes of up to 14 days from the original travel date". As 23.March Iīll have a notary appointment in Germany to buy a house I have to do a lot of flight research now and to make difficult decisions (taking the flight if not canceled? Seeing the whole shebang as sign to not buy the house, as I have anyway 2nd thoughts to do that?).
No. of Recommendations: 1
With BV inflation adjusted:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QvStA3yNEfAeBTeOL...Looks very different, rather as if Berkshire still is unusually highly valued.
(But: I donīt trust it 100%. While refreshing it I not only found that actually I didnīt do that since 2 years, but that I donīt understand the formula in one column, either because my brain now is two years older or because of being in stress currently. Jim, if you are interested I can email you the spreadsheet.)
No. of Recommendations: 1
"With BV inflation adjusted:"
Could you please post a link back to the original discussion? I'm trying to remember why the 16-quarter weighted moving average is multiplied by 1.7. Thank you.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Sorry, I donīt have a link. Looking at my spreadsheet I actually canīt reconstruct the reason, so we depend on Jim to explain.
All I can say:
- Inflation adjusted BV is calculated = factor A
- Then Peak BV to date calculated
- That is then smoothed (interpolated)
- Then 90% of smoothed peak real BV is calculated = factor B
(I think to remember Jim used 90% to avoid spikes/distortions by extraordinary events)
- It continues with the higher of A and B
- From that WMA16 is calculated
- Last step is this ominous multiplying WMA16 by 1.7
- (And adding the two trendlines, 1.2 respectively 1.7 times smoothed Peak BV)
