Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) |
Author: sutton ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 4581 
Subject: Re: The railroad / data center comparison
Date: 09/26/26 10:18 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 8
Thank you, Wendy! High praise indeed.

While I’m typing, I’ll add two more thoughts that occurred to me since I posted:

First, in looking at the North American map I had Perplexity draw it’s striking as to how much of the continent is excluded, including just about all of the American southwest. Without motorized bulk transport, there would be neither need nor ability to build a Denver, a Phoenix, a Dallas. Whatever bulk or perishable goods those areas produced would never be able to get anywhere beyond the local farmers’ market. And that actually goes for Minneapolis and Chicago, too: while they’re each on major waterways, they grew from small towns to their position in the national economy by processing the raw materials they imported from the country for export via ship. Those raw materials – for those two cities grain and cattle, respectively – had to come in by the rail car load.

The second is a factoid I picked up Thursday night from Liaquat Ahamed’s 1873 (1) (bolding mine):

“The biggest beneficiaries of the bond market's expansion during the 1850s and '60s were the railroads. Until then, bonds had largely been issued by governments. Private companies in need of funds to invest either raised capital by issuing equity or paid for their investments out of their
profits. But even a modestly sized railway line anywhere in the world cost such a colossal amount, and took so long to build, that the capital required far exceeded the sums that an individual entrepreneur could muster.... A railway line stretching a few hundred miles could cost ...an amount that, at the time, barely a handful of the world's richest businessmen could raise from their own pockets.

It was the bond market's unique ability to aggregate and channel pools of middle-class savings that made large-scale investments in the railroads possible. Railroad bonds became the totem of the age... railroads accounted for the vast bulk of bonds issued in the 1850s and '60s— according to one estimate, some $10 billion out of the total of $20 billion in new debt...”

Half
of the national bond market for a new industry, borrowed by the titans of the day, and causing a disruption in the market.

...followed by a crash, consolidation, and the permanent transformation of society by the new system.

It would be nice to think that we learned something. About the crash part, I mean.

--sutton
(1) amazon.com - Ref=tmm hrd swatch
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to sutton here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,571 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community