No. of Recommendations: 15
BRK - Intrinsic value will grow at inflation plus 6.5% per year. S&P 500 similar.
For the S&P, the figure includes dividends paid along the way.
To get those as a percentage, you have to consider the purchase price to get a denominator for the yield.
So, strangely, just to figure out the value generation rate of the S&P you kinda have to consider the price situation. Odd.
Anyway, trend real earnings for the broad US market rose at inflation + 2.5%/year in the last 40 years. An unusually good stretch.
Dividends averaged 4.0% during the stretch 1928-2004.
Add them together and you do get about inflation + 6.5%/year, the usual long run return from US stocks, often called Siegel's constant.
But dividends are about 1.5%/year right now, so in the sense that we have to consider the starting yield to estimate value generation, it might make more sense to expect S&P real value generation of something like 2.5% + 1.5% = 4.0%/year from here as a very rough guess.
Incidentally, Siegel's constant of ~6.5%/year real total return is an interesting number, as it has been surprisingly stable for generations.
But for the longest time that was basically real trend earnings growth of around 2%/year (or a pinch less) plus dividends of around 4.5%/year (or a pinch more).
Since the late 20th century that was replaced with lower dividend yields but an added factor of slowly expanding valuation levels, still adding up to around the same figure.
As valuation multiples probably can't expand forever, this observation has implications for extrapolation : )
Jim
