Even under the optimal scenario of instant replacement of all foreign manufacturing with new US manufactured items, if we totally eliminated the U.S. trade deficit, manufacturing would go from 10% of U.S. GDP to 12.5% — about the same as its share in 2007, and still far less than Germany, Japan, or China.

We are a service economy. That is not going to change no matter how high tariffs are.

The share of GDP that is manufacturing is going down in all rich countries at once. Including in China. And including in France, which has often had a trade surplus.

And real incomes in the US have continued on an upward path and are higher than in other rich countries.

I.e the US is not "being taken advantage of" but benefiting from world trade patterns. Income growth has gone up even as trade deficits went up. And up for the working class. In the last 15 years Americans have moved to better paying service jobs, not shelving at Walmart.

So the main thing for us is surviving the tariff hell and hope Trump and his counterparts will come to their senses and go to free trade to restore prosperity growth.

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.