No. of Recommendations: 4
Oil is now being priced at $126 a barrel. That’s up from $70 before the attack on Iran, so up 80%. Winning!Yep. There is a huge gap between futures prices and physical oil for present delivery - which suggests that the market was pricing in a significant chance that Trump was looking for a quick end to the conflict ("four to five weeks!" "ahead of schedule"). Once he started signaling that he might accept a long,
patient approach to the blockade, that possibility had to be discounted greatly.
Ironically, we're now in a position where you might see a decline in oil futures prices if the ceasefire is abrogated and the bombs started dropping again. Normally that kind of escalation would be a bad sign for oil prices - but here, it would signal that the Administration was looking for a faster resolution of the war. News that Trump is being briefed on more, different options today might point in that direction:
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/trump-military-pl...The blockade would be a sloooooooooooow weapon. That means high gas prices on Memorial Day and Fourth of July, which Trump probably doesn't want. It would be bearish for oil prices if Trump were to reach for a faster tactic.
