Post #7030 by Said on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤

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... and it's relation to real price is this: https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=910227142

Jim, would you have an updated link to the old chart?
(www.stonewellfunds.com/PriceAndWMAofValue.png)

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I did answer my question for Jim's updated chart myself. In case anybody is interested:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kxG7cUkZi4rpO5FBT...

Please note: While his chart and my updated one (constructed by as carefully as possible for me following the "manual" in his original post) are very similar, they are clearly not identical. The important point though: Surprisingly for me (who thought BRK is very richly valued currently) it looks as if BRK's price is only a little higher than expected by using trend BV as the yardstick.

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Update: Jim, looking closer why our charts deviate I think you made two mistakes:

- BRK-A price in 2000 in your chart is 100000, a price it reached only 7 years later. Neglectible, as absolute prices are not interesting in this context.

- take that WMA and multiply by 1.50. Why 1.50? I looked for the multiple that gave the best fit to price data ......The best fit result was a multiple of 1.5004 times the weighted moving average of real book.
Jim, I think you used not 1.5 but 1.7. Why? Because contrary to the chart resulting when using 1.5 (see the link I posted in my previous post) if using 1.7 my curve now indeed closely resembles yours (apart from mine being updated until 1.April 2024, the currently last quarterly data point):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1orBMiXDlV5qRliy-W...

So BRK's price correlates best with 1.7x the greater of "Real BV" and "90% of Peak Real BV".

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Jim, looking closer why our charts deviate I think you made two mistakes:

- BRK-A price in 2000 in your chart is 100000, a price it reached only 7 years later. Neglectible, as absolute prices are not interesting in this context...

My prices are inflation adjusted to the date of the chart. So the question is, when did the stock hit 100k in current dollars.

Jim

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