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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: onepoorguy 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 48469 
Subject: Re: Xi to Biden: We're taking Taiwan
Date: 12/21/2023 4:09 PM
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That isn't really news. They have been saying that pretty much every time they meet anyone.

Not that I'm trying to minimize the danger. It is very real. But it isn't new.

No matter who is POTUS, that will be a problem. And the Chinese Navy is strong enough to pose a problem for us. We'd probably still win, but it wouldn't be a slam dunk. Trump arguably made it worse by mostly disengaging from Asia, but the root problem isn't on him. It's been going on since at least the 1990s (when I spent time in Taiwan for work). Probably longer, but that's when I became aware of it.

One key is to provide a unified front among allies (US, Japan, Australia, maybe Britain). If we don't waver, they will think twice. They may still do something really stupid since they're obsessed with the notion that Taiwan belongs to them. However, starting a war with your biggest customers isn't a great idea (we buy a lot of Chinese crap). They are having a lot of economic problems already, and that would make them worse (e.g. a likely embargo of all things "made in China").
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