No. of Recommendations: 5
So, it's been two years (well, tomorrow, but close enough)
The proposition was:
- in a period of not less than two nor more than five years (the precise exit date chosen by myself), $x invested in GLP-1 drugs will beat the same $x in Berkshire.
- while the two manufacturers I chose were Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, I reserved the right to change to sell one of more of these and buy different pharmaceutical companies with the proceeds - just as long as the rationale was GLP-1 drugs (1).
- trades are without tax consequences (the account in question is a small old IRA, one that in no way is essential to my retirement stability)
So, comparing $10,000 in Berkshire B's with $5,000 each in NVO and LLY, 19 Jun 2024 to date (2):
BRK.B
$12063versus
NVO $1628
LLY $6313
Sum
$7941Observations to date:
- BRK is in the lead, despite the retirement of Our Chairman and subsequent price stagnation
- LLY has executed well. Had I put the whole $10K in Lilly, I'd be ahead
- I, for one, was surprised at how much Novo Nordisk bobbled the ball - mostly pricing and production issues they should have seen coming
Plan for now:
- no changes. I think LLY continues to execute, and NVO is at least talking the talk with their new CEO (and oral med): "
The chief executive appointed to stop the rot says Novo failed to get to grips with the changing dynamics of the market, notably the US" (3)
I'll check back in now and then until NLT 18 Jun 2029
-- sutton
(1) mostly pure GLP-1 agonists, but not all. I'm using the fuzzy "GLP-1 drugs" to forestall nitpicking, maybe
(2) I tried to do a total return calculation, but admittedly didn't spend much time on it. I may be missing a few $ in drug company dividends - but if the hypothesis depends on a few dollars of dividends in a several-year period, then at best I get a null outcome
(3) FT 12 Apr 26
https://www.ft.com/content/59f18923-8aac-4db4-aba6... 