No. of Recommendations: 4
No, it's not. That's a point you attribute to me, because it's easier for you to address that obviously false point than to address the substantive problems with asserting that Maduro's removal will have material changes to the geopolitics surrounding Venezuela. Or even just pave the way for U.S. oil companies to want to invest there.
Distinction without a difference.
You can repeat the "no geopolitical consequences" line all you want; I've listed several things that are different. Question for you: Who was in charge of Venezuela's oil on January 2, 2026 and who was in charge of it from January 4, 2026 onwards?
As far as attributing points to others, nice try on the "US oil companies" bit. I don't believe I've taken much of a stand one way or the other on that. Why? Because I don't care.
What I care about is tying a rope around the nuts of China and Cuba's oil supplies and giving it a good yank when we feel like it. Everything else is secondary.
I will certainly agree that the blockade of Venezuela will have a marked effect on Cuba (more below), but not one that was contingent on removing Maduro.
To this I'll repeat what I said upthread because I figured you'd go here:
You're no doubt going to reply with But we didn't need to do the raid... but you'll miss the fact that by removing the head of their government we sent a very clear and simple message: Don't F with us. During this operation we told their pilots in Spanish on their guard frequencies to land, pronto. They actually scrambled fighter jets, did you know that? The minute they went up they were told to turn around and land. Most did. A few enterprising pilots tried to follow the helicopters back...and learned right quick that continuing down that path meant BOOM for them. So they turned around also.
On this one:
Whacking drug boats will have a trivial effect
Heh. Turns out the real reason we did it was to create cover for the entire operation. Sending a number of drug dealers to Davy Jones' Locker for the cost of a few Hellfires is a small price to pay.
China's imports of Venezuelan oil are modest and easily replaced, and the "ghost fleet" hasn't been shut down - just blockaded from Venezuela.
Oh? Losing 4.5% of your entire oil supply is not "modest" nor is it "easily replaced". As for the ghost fleets...they're being taken for impound to the US. Their ghosting day are *ovah*.
I don't think this will have too much impact on China's ability to make inroads into South America. Especially since the two major economies that haven't already joined BRI - Mexico and Brazil - were none too pleased about it. I don't think it's going to do anything to get, say, Colombia to withdraw from the Belt and Road - or to change South American countries' perceptions that China, and not the U.S., is the safer and more stable partner to form economic and political ties with.
LOL. The US just proved who the Strong Horse in the Southern Hemisphere is. Unequivocably. For all China's bluster they still can't project power globally. We can.
I'd suggest you take a look at who's been winning elections in SA also. Javier Milei isn't going to take China's calls, for one. da Silva is upset because he's a socialist (with a sketchy electoral history) and Sheinbaum doesn't want Trump sending Delta Force to kill cartel heads in her country.
It's left wing propaganda to repeat the line that "China, and not the U.S., is the safer and more stable partner to form economic and political ties with. Literally no one serious about foreign policy believes that.
As for Cuba, they're in a real bad spot now. The blockade of Venezuelan oil to Cuba will have a significant impact on them. Honestly, I think that's the main consequence of all of this - because the fall of Cuba (if it happens) is perhaps the only lasting thing of consequence
Cuba is screwed. Their oil imports are about to go to zero and that's adios to their energy sector.
It is super popular. Among governments. Is it, now.
Governments don't like it because the Chinese deal with local chieftans and NOT the actual government. Then when they read the fine print they understand just whom they've sold their souls to.
Without making changes to the regime, the changes that we're effecting last for about as long as the naval buildup is continued. And since the naval buildup will not continue indefinitely, those changes will recede.
No. One P-8 Poseidon + NOSS satellite coverage can monitor thousands of square miles of ocean and look for tankers running away. I know another poster here was chortling about how these tankers were 'escaping' the Navy but that was just wishful thinking on his part.
