No. of Recommendations: 4
The strange thing about investing is that so many smart guys who make their living studying the market full time lose the race. Maybe that's because there's no finish line, just one of those mechanical rabbits...
I also think that you hear about the handful of people that do make money: a) only do well part of the time and b) tend to lose (to the market) more than they make (or at least more often). It's well documented, particularly in the retail community, that most people lose to the indexes. Then just look at all the funds that die a quiet death because they can't compete with passive index (largely momentum) investing.
Lastly, the edges that are discovered that are real, are *very* quickly bet on by a number of people. And about the time the edge is discovered, it's quickly arb'd away. And in all too many cases turns into a net loser.
Riding the rabbit... I do like the analogy. Unfortunately, when you just "ride the rabbit", it's not quite as entertaining! When I buy SPY these days, I'm telling myself I'm a mechanical investor - largest 500 US companies by market cap that have some earnings, readjusted on a quarterly basis (If I remember correctly when they adjust the index), and weighted by market cap. It doesn't get much more mechanical or simple than that. But it's boring - and you convince yourself that you can do better because all you're doing is sitting there year after year... :-) Now I'm repeating myself...
Lee
