*                         9/18     9/25/    10/2     10/9/23
S&P 500 Index             4450.32  4320.06  4288.05  4308.05
Trailing 12 month PE      23.87    23.14    22.91    22.90
Trail Earnings yield      4.19%    4.32%    4.36%    4.37%
Forward 12 month PE       20.58    19.91    19.70    19.81
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.86%    5.02%    5.08%    5.05%
90 day tbill yield        5.56     5.56     5.55     5.63
10 year tbond yield       4.33%    4.44%    4.59%    4.78%
Arezi Ratio               1.33     1.29     1.27     1.29
Fed Ratio                 0.89     0.88     0.90     0.95

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 56%
stocks, 44% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 26%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 71%.

Elan

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