No. of Recommendations: 13
My most humble prediction: if there is a new equilibrium possible a year from now which is relatively calm, it will be with the world agreeing (capitulating) to Iran running the strait as cash toll booth. $1-2m per passage, and nobody shooting.
As for financial markets, there does seem to be a lot of cognitive dissonance about. No matter what the price is, I suspect disaster insurance is underpriced. I might look for an opportunity to allocate 1%, maybe 1.5% of my portfolio to such things, with the central expectation that I'll lose it all. Not as a hedge, who needs those? But as a calm wager that might (just might) have a big payoff. A bubble is a terrible thing to waste, but so is a crash.
Jim
