No. of Recommendations: 15
I think it is lost to the old boards, but I believe there was once a discussion of a timing signal that said something along the lines of "if the 2-year T-bill rate rises more than 0.5% in a short period, it's a strong bear warning".
Anybody remember that?
As with any timing signal it may or may not be reliable, but if it has any utility it would definitely be now. The 2-year rate is up more than a full point in just over 6 months.
stockcharts.com: SharpCharts | StockCharts.comIf I were in the US, the 5 year TIPS yield at inflation + about 2.2% would look pretty tempting as a place to park money waiting for equity prices to look more tempting. If many people thought that way, it would cause some selling at the margins...
Jim
