No. of Recommendations: 15
Hello everyone.
1. Fear and Greed Index
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed"Fear and Greed" was at 71 a few hours ago (it's just dropped back to 70).
That is the highest 'greed' reading of the last 12 months.
2. TA
I heard recently that there's only one bear market rally in history where the price stayed over the 50, 100, and 200 DMA for 1 week. Every other time, supposedly it signaled the beginning of a bull market. Of course, that bear rally was in 2002, and 2002 looks extremely similar to today in terms of tech hype, peak bubble CAPE valuation etc. I haven't checked this alleged factoid, nor do I have much interest in doing so, but perhaps TA enthusiasts might want to double check and comment.
3. FA
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-peShiller CAPE is 29.6x
Suppose for a moment that this is a new bull market and we go up 20% from here while earnings, apparently, stagnate. That would put us back at the top 2 CAPE valuation bubbles of the last 150 years.
Right now, we're *still* in the top 4 valuation bubble levels of the last 150 years and almost in the top 3.
(Today's CAPE=29.6, black tuesday peak=30, dotcom peak= 44ish, 2021 peak=39ish)
IMHO, there's not a lot of upside potential for this to be the start of a bull market, regardless of the enthusiasm radiating from the TA charts.
lux
