Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of FKBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of FKBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) |
Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 1198 
Subject: Re: Jim, what do you think about IHI now.
Date: 06/05/26 9:31 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 17
I'm not fond of ETFs in general, as they are almost all cap weight. I mentioned positive things about an equally weighted portfolio in medical devices.

They were reliable outperformers as a group, then started into a long relative-to-market slump as a group. Somewhere down there is, I believe, a relative bottom: a point at which a slate of such firms will again start to be good relative-to-market performers. But then again, I apparently believe many things which are not true.

The history:
An equally weighted portfolio of all the medical device firms listed in the Value Line 1700 database beat the S&P by a remarkable 8.9%/year 1997-2020 inclusive. That's why I said good things about the group.
They then lagged the S&P by a whopping 15.9%/year 2021-2025 inclusive, lagging each calendar year and actually losing you money overall, which is a pretty neat trick.

The optimistic observation: they had a similar stretch of steady underperformance 1997-1999. If you remember what was happening in the market then. That came to an end. So, the wild speculation: when this bull market cracks, and with no particular hurry, allocate some money to this group. There are about 60 such stocks on average lately. Value Line has two categories, invasive and non-invasive medical devices, and I lump them together.

(that's without any other filtering among the firms...I usually look at the ones with the highest cash-to-market-cap ratio, to tilt away from the weak hands. 5 year sales growth is another good filter for this group)

Jim

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 1,188 posts about Falling Knives. The article-length ones it recommended most:
FKA: DG · 25 recs · 2023
MTD – A Masterclass in Un-Swiss Capital Allocation · 17 recs · 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) · 15 recs · 2026
ORCL, PSKY, oh my · 15 recs · 2026
Coloplast (CLPBY) · 12 recs · 2026
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) |


Announcements
Falling Knives FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of FK | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community