Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
 Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week! | How To Invest
Search BRK.A
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week! | How To Invest
Search BRK.A

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (6) |
Post New
Author: rayvt ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 75974 
Subject: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/08/26 5:57 PM
Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 14
SMA timing flipped today

I use the 43 week (10 month) SMA of the S&P 500, gated by 2 FRED indexes.
In the last month the low SMA was -4.1%. It went negative on March 20, 2026.
But the FRED indexes have been both positive, thus blocking the SMA sell signal.

Today the SMA flipped positive. -0.3% yesterday to +2.2% today.
Print the post


Author: FlyingCircus ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 75974 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/09/26 12:21 AM
Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 9
Same on all the major asset classes (EFA, Emerging, etc) except US small caps which never dropped all the way to their 43/50 weekly MAs so no cross/flip.
Print the post


Author: mapg ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 19827 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/09/26 8:48 AM
Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 3
BUT markets are volatile NOW (SEE WTI price) and could reverse QUICKLY.

           WTI       RBOB
           LS CRUDE  GASOLINE  GOLD     SILVER    E-MINI DOW  E-MINI NASD100  E-MINI SP500
4/8/2026      99.20      2.97  4768.71   74.52    47.967.00         25033.25       6806.25
% CHG          5.05      1.61    -0.23   -1.17         -0.37           -0.16         -0.26
AS OF EDT      8:20      8:20     8:20    8:20          8:20            8:20          8:20


gd_



Print the post


Author: rayvt ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 19827 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/09/26 9:30 AM
Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 6
BUT markets are volatile NOW (SEE WTI price) and could reverse QUICKLY.

Yes. What the recent price action says to me is that it is almost completely driven by fleeting short-term emotion.
Print the post


Author: mapg ✭  😊 😞
Number: of 19827 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/09/26 5:11 PM
Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 3
Good call for today hope for more of the same tomorrow.

       .DJI      .SPX     .IXIC     .TNX   BTC/USD
PRICE  48185.80  6824.66  22822.42  42.93  72420.35
% CHG      0.58     0.62      0.83   0.05      2.01


GD_
Print the post


Author: mungofitch ✹🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 19827 
Subject: Re: SMA timing flipped today
Date: 04/11/26 7:49 AM
Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 13
SMA timing flipped today
I use the 43 week (10 month) SMA of the S&P 500, gated by 2 FRED indexes.

Same for the one I watch.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24SPX&p=d&yr=1&...
Blue above red bullish.

The weird figures just mean a six month moving average, lagged two months. The middle of that interval is 5 months ago, so it's fairly similar to a 10 month moving average without lag, which in turn is close to the traditional 200 day MA. It was the winner of a "crossover backtest" competition I simulated long ago.

I find this crossover tends to get large long moves right giving long stretches without a signal, interspersed with quick whipsaws which, because they are generally quick, tend to be relatively low pain.


Weekly-check approximation of the same thing. Fewer signals.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24SPX&p=w&yr=1&...

Jim
Print the post


Post New
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (6) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Ticker or Board Name Author

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds