No. of Recommendations: 18
1. I'm an outspoken critic of owning PacifiCorp. The fire risk in California and Oregon is just too high. Just ask PG&E.
2. I'm not a huge fan of buying OxyChem. Berkshire probably got a good price ($9.7B), but the chlor-alkali business is at best a so-so business.
3. Kraft-Heinz stock is down from $90 to $24, and Buffett has stated publicly that he doesn't think that splitting the company will help. Buffett has also stated that he paid too much for Kraft. Personally, I think that 3G was not a great partner in the original Heinz deal. 3G's business strategy was basically just to cut staff.
Some people on this board have also been critical of Precision Cast Parts and Lubrizol.
The list for both the Good and Not So Great columns is long.
It's hard to argue with the insurance business. Insurance float plus disciplined, long-term value investing is at the top of the Good list.
The railroad is low growth but low risk.
Some of the stock holdings (Amex, Coke, Moody's) are unspectacular but probably safe. Apple is a great business, and while it seems overpriced, it's probably a good long-term hold.
In the less stellar column, of course there's Pacificorp and KraftHeinz, but I think Chevron and Oxy and Oxychem and Lubrizol will end up working ok, like Coke.
In the wholly owned business, I hate Pilot's outgoing management, and he overpaid (partly through outgoing management's fraud), but it will be ok eventually. Precision Cast Parts, I don't know enough about to comment.
Ultimately, the good outweighs the bad, because the basic structure is good and the people are honest and hardworking and smart. The bad bets like Pilot and Kraft and Heinz will end up being small, and the good bets like Apple will end up being huge, and it will all work out in the end. I think.
dtb
