No. of Recommendations: 32
How ridiculous does the US look right now in the eyes of non-US investors?
Ridiculousness per se is not so bad. "Misce stultitiam consiliis brevem; dulce est desipere in loco", after all.
(from Horace: "Mix a little foolishness with your prudence; it's good to be silly at the right moment", as written on my mother's grave)
No, based on the investor folks I know, pretty much all ex-US, the feeling is more towards the "maybe a little unsafe for your capital" end of the spectrum.
Financial Times headline today: "Big investors shift away from US markets"
...
“The US has been the best place in the world to invest for a century, but I’m starting to hear investors question whether US exceptionalism is a little less exceptional, and think about whether to position their portfolios accordingly,” Howard Marks
Admittedly part of it is probably cyclical. If US equity markets were attractively priced, the mood would probably be different.
But nosebleed prices combined with capricious rule of law is not an attractive mix for a portfolio manager. From a jurisdiction risk point of view, the US now clearly has the profile of an emerging market, without a doubt. Still tons of money to be made, but where? The old rules on how to spot the opportunities and risks no longer apply. For a typical US stock, how much of the price movement in the last few months is a function of the knowable prospects of the underlying businesses? Close to zip.
Jim
